Iran -- one month in

It is now a little over a month into the Iran war.  While it would be unreasonable to expect really dramatic results in so short a time, it's remarkable what has been accomplished already.  Many top figures within the theocracy have been killed, and much of its infrastructure of repression -- facilities and personnel of the Basij militia and of the Revolutionary Guards -- has been destroyed.  Missile attacks on Israel have greatly declined compared to their earlier volume, suggesting that much or most of Iran's missile inventory and/or launch apparatus has been destroyed.  US non-stealth bombers are operating freely over Iran, showing that its air defenses have been so degraded as to no longer pose a threat.  Two days ago Netanyahu said that the war is probably past its halfway point.

There are signs of divisions emerging within the regime.  The president and the head of the Revolutionary Guards are in open disagreement about how to pursue the war.  In theory both are subordinate to the supreme leader, Mojtabā Khāmenei, but he has not made any appearances since his appointment and there is no evidence that he is even still alive.  The Iran International news site claims that the Revolutionary Guards have seized de facto power.  There are also apparently disputes over the legitimacy of Khāmenei inheriting power from his father.

The war, and the regime's shutting down of the internet across the country, are putting such strain on Iran's already-impoverished economy that economic distress could trigger renewed street protests -- most of the major uprisings during the last couple of decades in Iran started as economic protests which then rapidly turned political.  Dollar-based pricing is spreading as the regime's currency becomes worthless.  Due to shortages of enforcers, the regime has begun recruiting children as soldiers and importing foreign Shiite armed gangs to help beat down the Iranian people if needed.  These are not the actions of a government with any confidence in its own stability.

Here is a discussion of Israel's four-stage strategy for bringing down the theocracy.  And the Israeli-US campaign is succeeding, despite the dominant narrative in the US media.

Speaking of which, there is an important point to keep in mind.  This Twitter account posted a video purporting to show Tel Aviv blacked out and under heavy missile attack, but the video was actually of Tehran.  There has been a widely-repeated report that Israeli soldiers in Gaza had tortured a child, but the story bore no resemblance to what had actually happened.  Recently there have been claims that the Knesset had enacted the death penalty for "political prisoners" (here is an example), but in reality this law mandates the penalty for persons convicted of terrorist attacks that result in death, and such persons are murderers by definition, not political prisoners.  Over the years I have seen so many cases like photographs claiming to be of death or destruction in Gaza, which later turned out to actually be from other Middle Eastern countries years earlier and situations unrelated to Gaza or Israel, that I now simply assume any claim of implausible Israeli actions or defeats is false unless it's backed by absolutely solid evidence.

My point is, Israel's enemies are proven liars.  They lie and lie and lie.  And they are a big component of the opposition to the current military campaign in Iran.  You cannot trust anything that these people say.  Any video or photograph they post is more likely than not something other than what they claim it is.  Any statement they make is likely to be a lie.  Fact-check everything.

There is a more substantive concern.  Throughout the decades-long history of the jihadist wars against Israel, there is a recurring pattern of the West pressuring Israel to accept a ceasefire before the enemy is completely defeated.  Wars end when one side wins them, but because Israel has not been allowed to fully win, the conflict does not end -- and so it has dragged on and on.  There is, perhaps, some risk of the same thing happening here.  Trump's befuddled and conflicting public statements about the war, his repeated claims to be working on a deal with the theocracy which would leave it in power, and recently his ludicrous assertion that "regime change" has already been accomplished, suggest that his obvious dementia is damaging his ability to stay focused.  The Arab states of the Gulf are already seriously concerned, and are pressing Trump to stay the course.

If the campaign is abandoned before the theocracy falls, it will be a disaster and a monstrous betrayal.  All those who have died will have died for nothing, and the best chance in our lifetime for the Iranian people to take control of their own destiny will have been thrown away.  The theocracy will eventually rebuild the military capabilities that have been destroyed, and will continue to foment terrorism and murder.  But whatever Trump does, I suspect that Israel, this time, will not allow itself to be pressured into such a disaster.  Because for them this isn't just another battle like all the earlier wars -- it is, so to speak, the entire ball game.  A democratic or even just secular Iranian government, aligned with Israel and the West and no longer supporting murderous gangs like Hamas and Hezbollah and the Houthis, would reduce the whole jihadist threat against Israel from an existential menace to a nuisance.  It would make the Middle East more peaceful, and Israel's situation more secure and relaxed, than at any time during the last eighty years.  The Israeli voting public, which overwhelmingly supports the current military campaign, would never forgive Netanyahu if he let that opportunity be lost.