Why health-care reform probably won't happen
Nevertheless, I'd be willing to bet that, in the end, reform will fail.
I've already mentioned a couple of land-mine issues (illegal-alien coverage, fear by the 85% who do currently have insurance that their choice or quality of care could decrease) that could lead to mass public rejection of reform. But these are just specific cases of the more general problem. Health care is one-sixth of the national economy and impacts an issue of great importance to people -- their health. The whole thing is just too big, too complicated, too emotionally-charged, with too many powerful constituencies and interest groups wanting a say, too many different ideas for what to do, too many people who would reject any type of reform other than their preferred one as being not a "real" reform.
This is not the kind of thing our political system handles well, even with one party overwhelmingly dominant.
Furthermore, health care is the textbook example of a good which people think they should have unlimited access to, regardless of whether they (or anyone) can pay for it. Anything that smacks of rationing will likely lead to a rejection of reform, even if rationing actually exists in other forms in the present system. Better the devil we know. Most of the insured 85% are happy enough with what they have. There isn't going to be a huge upsurge of public pressure to get this done.
The timing, too, could hardly be worse. We're just now entering a fragile economic recovery, and employment probably won't start to improve for at least another six months. Any new tax could be denounced, with some justice, as a threat to tip the economy back into recession.
There are already signs that the whole thing is falling apart.
Nice try, but I don't think it's going to happen.