28 May 2009

Recovery

A survey of leading economists shows that 93% of them expect the recession will end for the US in the second half of 2009, with the remaining 7% believing it will end in the first quarter of 2010. One leading analyst says the economy has already turned the corner.

The aspect of the economy most important to the average person is, of course, unemployment. Unfortunately unemployment is what economists call a "lagging indicator", meaning it's usually one of the last measures to improve during a recovery. It may well be that jobs won't become more abundant until 2010, but that too will come. The doom-and-gloom crowd were wrong as usual. The worst is behind us.

Update (29 May): The GDP is better than expected, too.

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