26 October 2016

Even Texas?

It's been startling enough to see on-and-off polling leads for Hillary in Arizona and Georgia.  But the real stunner is that even Texas could be in play this year.  No poll shows Hillary leading there, but Trump's lead has been shrinking, and in the RCP average for the state, a couple of recent polls show it as small as 3%:

Early voting has begun in Texas, and turnout is massive (always a good sign for Democrats), especially in the relatively-liberal urban enclaves.  Yes, Texas does have relatively-liberal urban enclaves.  Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio have gone for Democratic Presidential candidates in some recent elections, as has the region along the Mexican border which includes the large city of El Paso.  Dallas has a substantial and open gay subculture, and Houston has elected an openly-lesbian mayor -- and then of course there's Austin.  And recall that Texas has a large Latino population.  It's far from a homogenously conservative state.

If Hillary does carry Texas as well as Arizona and Georgia, her electoral-vote total is likely to surpass 400 -- just the kind of massive rebuke the Republicans need to receive for inflicting Donald Trump on the nation as a serious candidate, and just the kind of sweep that will make a real mandate hard to deny.  The odds are still against it happening.  But not by much.


Blogger Ranch Chimp said...

Sure, I know the odds are against us here, but ya'll dont have a heart attack from shock if Texas does go blue! I posted much about this myself, because I know Texas well ... I would like to see more support from Washington as far as left politics are concerned, Washington has pretty much ignored this state from my view, maybe because they feel it is hopeless in these red states, and the GOP has taken that opportunity to really work hard in these red states on that grassroots level too, GOP doesnt let anything slip them, the minute you turn your back on them, they will take advantage of it, they know they are on a thin line, and take advantage of everything they can ... having more folks from Washington run through here every once in the while would help motivate folks to vote too. I mean, having folks like Bernie Sanders even visiting here (which many up there neglect), really excited folks here, just to hear something different, someone that cares, something that folks been longing for.

26 October, 2016 08:06  
Blogger Paul W said...

It'll be tough, but getting even TEXAS into the Margin of Error range for the polling is a huge victory for Hillary no matter what. That has been such an anchor for the Far Right Republicans that losing that state - with its massive Electoral College number - would honestly scare them enough to go "Holy SH_T this obstructionist wingnut hate-filled agenda is going to destroy this party forever."

Texas IS in play because 1) there's no set value on Latino turnout because it WILL be higher than ever before and the polling may be under-reporting them, and 2) even the traditional Republican voters are underwhelmed for Trump. He's still getting, what, 85 percent of party support? Romney had 95 percent...

26 October, 2016 16:31  
Blogger Tommykey said...

Obviously, the higher Clinton's margin of victory, the more proof in the eyes of the Trumpanzees that the voting was rigged in her favor!

27 October, 2016 09:39  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

Ranch: I wish Hillary were paying more attention to Texas in this last couple of weeks. She may think she has only an outside chance -- but it would be worth so much if she did win there.

Paul: Let's hope it's one more wake-up call for however many sane Republicans are left.

Tommy: That may be inevitable, but at least they'll be alone in that belief.

27 October, 2016 17:54  

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