06 March 2012

Super Tuesday!

Four men enter.....

.....one man leaves? Sorry, Republicans, you're not gonna be that lucky. First, Ron Paul is in for the duration, come Hell or high turn-out. Second, Gingrich's ego won't let him quit; even if all he wins is Georgia, he'll claim that as a basis for staying in until Texas, which is months away yet. Third, even if Santorum quits, that will make the mess worse, not better, since the anyone-but-Romney vote will finally unify behind Gingrich and pose a more effective challenge to Romney.

Ten states vote today: Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia. Romney should win most of the states, but Georgia is Gingrich's home state, and Romney could well lose Oklahoma and Tennessee or even Ohio, which is being billed as the critical contest of the day. Virginia would have been a good possibility for Gingrich or Santorum if their campaigns hadn't been too incompetent to get them on the ballot. Even Paul has a chance in Alaska and North Dakota. And most delegates are being allocated proportionately rather than winner-take-all, so even if Romney wins in most places, everyone will pick up delegates.

I'm betting on Santorum to fade due to resentment over his robocall dirty trick in Michigan, and on Gingrich to do well enough to stay in despite the party establishment wishing he'd go away and get this thing over with. The Nutty faction of the Republicans is still not reconciled to Romney.

It's most interesting to follow the race on the right-wingers' own forums. Here are the ones I use to track commentary by the different factions:

Sane faction: Race42012, David Frum

Nutty faction: RedState

Ron Paul cult: Daily Paul

Unless, of course, there's another debate.

So have at it, and may all four of them lose.


Blogger LadyAtheist said...

meanwhile, Netanyahu visits the White House and nobody notices :-(

06 March, 2012 04:14  
Blogger Leslie Parsley said...

I hope all four lose as well or otherwise I will probably renew my passport. They're not only totally incompetent, they're completely certifiably insane.

06 March, 2012 06:29  
Blogger Leslie Parsley said...

PS: Thanks for the links to the "sane" conservative sites - can't take the others.

06 March, 2012 06:29  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

LA: People notice, but that's a different topic.

LP: The more they continue destroying each other, the better.

Thanks for the links to the "sane" conservative sites

I should have said, sane-er.

06 March, 2012 06:58  
Blogger Nance said...

I've given up writing about this primary; I can't keep up with the crazy and you can't invent stuff better than this. There's nothing I could say that would damn the GOP better than they do; nothing I could say that would make Obama look better than the things he says for himself. I'm sticking to the cheering section, where I belong. And may the Republican Four grind their way together all the way to the convention.

My favorite takeaway from last night's speeches came from Santorum in Ohio: (paraphrasing) We have seven kids. We gave up our jobs. We've used up all our savings. Because it was the responsible thing to do!

07 March, 2012 06:34  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

I'm glad to see the results still left the Republicans in a big muddle. Santorum did better than I expected and Gingrich did worse, but the Nutty faction as a whole is still going strong despite Romney's mostly-narrow wins.

Responsible thing to do? Santorum is such a flake! If Romney can't beat him, how does he hope to beat Obama?

07 March, 2012 07:30  

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