The right and the debate
The debate affirmed this as a two-candidate race -- Romney vs. Perry. The rest are long shots. A few assessments from the right:
PJM thinks Perry's got it in the bag; David Frum is unimpressed; Nate Silver thinks the base still doesn't realize he's unelectable. Andrew Sullivan and The Crossed Pond did live-blogs; Sullivan also has a round-up of views.
But we'll need a few days to know how the base is reacting.
Update: Immoral Minority has some interesting pictures from during a commercial break at the debate.
PJM thinks Perry's got it in the bag; David Frum is unimpressed; Nate Silver thinks the base still doesn't realize he's unelectable. Andrew Sullivan and The Crossed Pond did live-blogs; Sullivan also has a round-up of views.
But we'll need a few days to know how the base is reacting.
Update: Immoral Minority has some interesting pictures from during a commercial break at the debate.
posted by Infidel753 at 6:24 AM
13 Comments:
I really, really hope I'm right here. I just have this gut feeling that Perry is going to be a flash in the pan much like Palin and Bachmann.
Sometimes I think that all these crazies are put out there as a distraction and that before it's all over some dark horse who "seems" more palatable and sane will toss his hat into the ring. None of this is by accident, of course. It's part of the grand plan to ensure that Obama doesn't have a second term.
If I may, I would caution against taking the various pundits and reporters' anointing of "front runner' status too seriously or permanently. The Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary are still quite a ways off, politically speaking. And a lot can happen between now and then, as well as surprises the days that those votes are taken. If we look back to similar media-crowned front runners at parallel times in past races, the accuracy isn't very impressive: LBJ would have been re-elected in '68, (against Republican nominee George Romney, Mitt's Dad...); Edmund Muskie would have been the Democratic nominee in '72; John Connolly would have outspent Reagan to be the GOP's boy in '80, etc. There are others, but the point is that I think it's still a pretty open race on the Republican side, given the amount of time left before the early votes. Yes, there might be trends, but I wouldn't place any serious bets, yet...
Good points, both. Perry does seem rather gaffe-prone. I have to keep reminding myself that the election is still more than a year away.
It helped that MSNBC put Romney and Perry front and center. Certainly reinforces the frontrunner status. (I assume they were placed from the center out based on polls.)
I think Perry needs more polish. A lot of stumbling and mumbling while he tried to find his point.
But if you're looking for an opinion from the base: Perry didn't do anything to hurt himself. Bachmann, Santorum, and Huntsman are done. Cain will stay as long as he can, but has no chance.
"But if you're looking for an opinion from the base: Perry didn't do anything to hurt himself."
That's true. But the base--either Reps. or Dems.--doesn't elect presidents.
Perry is too extreme to appeal to a large number of voters. No amount of "polish" will put shine on his "Social Security is a Ponzi scheme" rhetoric or any of the other extreme positions he's taken, for example his boast that he doesn't lose sleep over the possibility of having sent an innocent man to his death.
That rhetoric is out there to be used against him in campaign sound-bites.
I read this post yesterday Infodell, but had to make a quick run before I could comment, as far as the debate, I didnt watch it, but can figure out what it basically was about without doing so, their so easy to read. I have talked to 3 die hard republican's here in Dallas this last week, who are pissed strictly at Rick Perry for just suggesting that that SSI is a hustle, and even more now questionable on his motive's, wondering "why" he would want to turn it over to the stock market's? ... considering the way they been acting (which will continue I may add for some time, due to thing's like computerized "speed trading" which is used exclusively by the world's largest inverstment banker's, which I done some posting on). One of them is a sraight voting republican neighbor named Edith Beggs, she is a retired business woman 78 year's old. Yesterday I washed her car for her (I do odd and end stuff for her, at no charge because I admire the woman, she's single and independent, very strong) ... she mentioned to me that she alwayz blamed LBJ (dem) for being the one that tried to use all the SS monies for special interest, but she was appauled and shocked about Perry in his statement's, actually saying that it was enough to make her want to vote democrat. Although I feel that there is a faction of the democrat party of course that cater's to the republican's (I dont know if it's in the spirit of bipartisanship or just special interest's) and I also blame this faction of it, for "influencing" the President on some of his call's that made Democrat's question the move's he made, two of these of this faction I would pin as Reid and Baucus, so my feeling's on the President are mixed let's say (I'm not trying to cover him, only going on what I see), because I dont believe some of his decision's were solely his and strongly influenced by other democrat's such as them two.
Thanx for the post Infodell ....
I wanted to add, since I used Edith's name here, that out of curiosity after my comment, I went and googled her name, to my suprise, it confirm's on more than one post that Edith is 84 year's old (she dont look over 65 to me, especially how she get's around) ... but nearly 1 year ago, I took her to renew her driver's liscense, she just had some laser eye surgery done the day before, she told me she was 78 ... could she have mistaken her age I wonder? : )
We need to remember that Perry has only been an announced candidate for a very short time. He looks good and sounds good, and the appeal to the Republican base (fundamentalists) is obvious, but I expect he'll evoke more and more alarm among the general population as he becomes better known. The Social Security issue is a gold mine. If he really believes it's unconstitutional, how could he not, as President, make every effort to abolish it? Even a lot of Republicans will become alarmed at this stuff -- based on what RC says, they already are.
I also like to add here Infodel that so many republican's that I have known here in the Dallas Area, including a local republican politician that I worked for, for almost 7 year's (James Folkes) were all pro- choice as far as the issue's on abortion, I just wanted to mention this, because it seem's that the news portrayz the republican base it seem's as alwayz pro- life only, which of course seem's odd to me and sometime's questionable. Edith herself is very pro- choice, and she even is considered by several locally of the retired business women's club called "red hat club" or something(?) to be a sort of pioneer feminist at that. Yes, she was married many year's back and divorced, never remarried, has a son in Los Angeles who own's his company, she a rugged individualist West Texas born and bred gal, but yes, die hard republican for decade's.
Interesting? I find them repulsive and further proof that the extreme right is a bunch of bullies that are trying to force their beliefs upon the rest of Amerika.
The only sane GOP Presidential Clown is Huntsman and I have said that from the start. I do not agree with his positions but he isn't a rightwing extremist.
Also..wasn't it Paul that bitchslapped Perry about his executive order to have all girls given the HPV Shot? I bet that was what the bru-haha was all about.
RC: I think people like that go on voting Republican because they think even when Republicans win elections, they can't actually do anything to harm abortion rights, because of Roe v. Wade. They need to consider that one more Republican President could give us a reactionary majority on the Supreme Court.
DHMVB: It does seem to have angered some Paul supporters. There's a fund-raising drive on now to keep the anti-Perry ad on the air.
Also, at first I read your second comment as "his executive order to have all girls with HPV shot" -- I guess that's just the impression he makes on me.
LOL! that's exactly what I did when I read that.
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