The campaign against the Iranian theocracy, day 2

For my first assessment of the campaign, please see yesterday's post.

I must stress that the death of Khamenei does not, in itself, mean the downfall of the theocracy.  The Islamic Republic has never been a one-man show like the regime of a Qaddhafi of a Saddam Hussein.  As in our own system, institutions are more important than individuals, and are designed to provide continuity even in case of the supreme leader's death.  Degrading those institutions and the theocracy's enforcement systems to the point of collapse will take a long and thorough campaign, although a resurgence of active Iranian resistance would speed this up.  I have also seen vague reports of resistance infiltrators within the regime, ready for an effort to seize control once enough damage is done to make that possible, but I cannot judge how much credibility this has.

Israel has suffered further civilian casualties, with nine people being killed by an Iranian missile in the town of Beit Shemesh.  US Central Command reports that US military facilities in the Middle East have suffered only minimal damage and no casualties so far, despite being targeted by hundreds of Iranian missiles and drones -- evidence that anti-missile defenses and other counter-measures are proving highly effective.  Israel and the US are continuing to destroy the theocracy's missile bases, and of course its supply of missiles and drones is not unlimited.  Update:  Tragically, it is now reported that three US service members have been killed.

So far I have seen no reports of Hamas or Hezbollah attacking Israel in defense of the theocracy which is their main sponsor.  If they do, Israel is certainly prepared.

The death of Khamanei provoked jubliation all across Iran, as people in city after city danced in the streets and set off fireworks to celebrate.  The Iranian diaspora around the world followed suit, rejoicing at the anticipated fall of the theocracy, with Israeli and US flags sometimes displayed in tribute to the forces striking at the regime.  This included Iranians in the US, notably in Los Angeles, home to the largest Iranian population outside Iran itself.

Also across the US, the ignorantsia took to the streets protesting against the operation to free Iran.  These are the same kind of vermin who marched in celebration of Hamas's October 7 mass slaughter in Israel, before Israel even began to retaliate.  To them, the continued existence of the murderous theocracy would be acceptable, rather than see Israel and the US help Iran free itself.  These people are simply evil -- there is no other way to describe it.  The same could be said of loathsome American politicians like Mamdani and Newsom, the useful idiots of jihadism, who took a similar stance.  However, the US political establishment is divided, and not really along party lines, with some Democrats as well as Republicans in Congress supporting the campaign.

Most of the highly-political American blogs I read, both left and right, also condemned the military attack on the theocracy, while making it painfully obvious that they know nothing about Iran -- often framing the operation as "starting a war with Iran", which is like saying the 1944 D-Day landings in Normandy were "starting a war with France".

Overthrowing the Iranian theocracy is far bigger and more important than all this American left-vs-right stuff and being for or against Trump.  The willfully blind refuse to see that.  Iranians will remember who stood by them and who de facto defended the theocracy.

[Image at top:  The original Iranian flag with the lion-and-Sun symbol, from before the theocracy]