The attack on the Iranian theocracy -- updated

[The usual Saturday link round-up is below.]

As everyone has probably seen by now, this morning Israel and the US launched military strikes against the Iranian theocracy.  Of course in any complex story like this, it takes some time for full and accurate details to emerge, and early reports can be wrong or misleading.  Still, here's what I've been able to glean about what's happening, mostly from sources based in the Middle East itself.

To start with, it looks like Israel is taking the lead in the operation, with the US playing a supporting role.  I certainly hope that this is the case, since Netanyahu understands the region and the Iranian domestic situation far better than Trump does; for years he has spoken of Iran as a potential ally, if its people can free themselves from the theocracy's tyranny and make their own will felt.

There appears to have been a major airstrike against the Beit-e Rahbari, which is a nerve center of the regime and the residence of "supreme leader" Khamenei, with satellite imagery showing heavy damage.  Celebrations erupted in Tehran at the news of this attack, although Khamenei reportedly was not there and remains in charge.  Here are some first impressions from an Iranian journalist, who says that the Revolutionary Guards (the regime's fanatical enforcers) have been struck as well, with "thousands" of them killed or injured -- an important step toward encouraging a renewal of the popular uprising of January.

Targets in other cities have been struck too, not only in Tehran.  Senior leaders other than Khamenei have also been targeted, and several have been killed.

There have been cyber-attacks on the regime-controlled media.  This will somewhat undermine the regime's ability to maintain control; I hope it means there have also been cyber-attacks on the Revolutionary Guards and other enforcers, and on the regime's internal communications.  Such targets are too widespread and entrenched to be thoroughly neutralized purely by military attacks without incurring unacceptable civilian casualties, so cyber-warfare would be an appropriate tactic against them.

The theocracy has fired missiles at Israel, as well as at several of the Arab states of the Gulf (targeting US military installations there), and possibly also at Jordan.  Most of these missiles are apparently being intercepted.  I've seen reports of injuries in Israel, but not of deaths, so far.  Israel is destroying as many Iranian missile-launch sites as possible.

Crown prince Rezā Pahlavi, a figure viewed as a symbolic leader by much of the Iranian resistance and who currently lives in exile in the US, has called upon Iranians to prepare to return to the streets.

Canada, Australia, and Ukraine are supporting the Israeli-US operation, while European governments seem to be irrelevantly bleating about the UN.

Trump is still talking about stopping the Iranian nuclear-weapons program, which is a worthy goal as far as it goes, but it is trivial compared with the prospect of overthrowing the theocracy itself.  If the theocracy falls and is replaced by a popular government, the nuclear program will become a moot point -- a democratic Iran would no longer seek to destroy Israel and would not face any external threat to which nuclear deterrence would be an appropriate response, and in any case nuclear weapons in its hands would pose no more threat to the West than democratic India's arsenal does.

Obviously it will take some time to see how events are going to proceed.  But this really does look like do-or-die time -- the best opportunity for this ancient civilization to cast off its ghastly regime since that regime first imposed itself in 1979.  The stakes could hardly be higher, for everyone involved.  A democratic and pro-Western Iran would completely transform the entire situation in the Middle East.  And the tens (likely hundreds) of thousands of people murdered by the religious thugs since 1979 would at last be avenged, the courage of the resistance finally rewarded with success.

Update 1:  Iranians in Switzerland and France rally for the end of the theocracy.  Such rallies are happening in several countries.

Putin has condemned the Israeli-US airstrikes -- hardly surprising given the Iranian theocracy's long-standing and vital support for his war against Ukraine.

Inevitably, the ignorantsia are already starting to come out of the woodwork all over the internet to blather mindlessly against the operation.  Knowing nothing about Iran, they prioritize irrelevant US domestic politics (and their own pathological hatred toward Israel) over the Iranian struggle for liberation, spouting tired old clichés without an atom of actual thought.  They are as devoid of humanity as they are of awareness, and there is no value or honor in anything they say.

Update 2:  Israel is now reporting that the theocracy's supreme leader Ali Khamenei was at the Beit-e Rahbari when it was hit, and that this monstrously evil man is in fact dead.

Update 3:  The theocracy has confirmed Khamenei's death in the Israeli air force attack on his palace -- struck down by the free nation he always aspired to destroy.  I wish that Hell was real, for there have been few who more deserved an eternity there than this cold, reptilian fanatic who sanctioned the murder of tens of thousands of his own people to prolong his miserable, unwanted rule a little longer.  As it is, his death brings some justice for his victims.  Small wonder that there have been reports of jubilation in Iran over his end.

The theocracy is claiming that one attack destroyed a school in the town on Mināb on the strait of Hormuz.  It remains unclear whether this actually happened; assuming it did, it is sadly not possible to carry out a military operation on this scale without such tragic errors occurring, however much the attacking forces try to avoid them.  Inevitably, some innocent Iranians will die, whether the Mināb school story is true or not.  But allowing the theocracy to remain in power would just mean more and more murder and torture and suffering for more and more people for ever and ever.  There is no alternative.  And the jihadists, of course, routinely choose innocent civilians as their intentional targets, as we saw on September 11, October 7, and in countless other demonstrations of their barbarity.

Confirmed deaths from the theocracy's retaliatory missile strikes, so far, comprise one migrant worker killed in Abu Dhabi and one woman killed in Tel Aviv.  Any innocent death is a tragedy, but given the claimed scale of the bombardment, such a low death toll suggests that the anti-missile defenses in Israel and the Gulf are proving stunningly effective.