Developments in Iran -- unconfirmed but interesting
A hint of what was to come came with a post two days ago which claimed that Israeli intelligence reports had revealed what it had described as "a deep division within Iran's ruling structure, following major leadership changes", pointing to the fact that power has become distributed among multiple centres of influence operating in an uncoordinated manner amid an escalating struggle over decision-making.....
A later report then referenced "unconfirmed reports" speaking of military confrontations inside the capital Tehran between the Iranian army and the Revolutionary Guard. Such reports, if confirmed, the poster wrote, "mean that Iran is on the verge of a civil war and a struggle for power". Then we had Saudi analyst Mansour Almalik also speaking of a revolutionary uprising in Tehran, with the startling news that the Revolutionary Guard had place[d] the official Iranian negotiating team under house arrest. Negotiations with America are halted, he wrote.
If any or all of this is true, it would confirm earlier indications that the regime is starting to disintegrate into fragmented groups competing for power, with no single person or group clearly in charge. It would also explain the apparent confusion in the regime's approach to negotiations with the US. Finally, it would account for why Israel and the US have held off resuming large-scale military attacks. It would be wisest to wait until a clearer picture of the situation emerges, to assess how a new wave of attacks targeting specific leaders can best be designed to push the regime into total collapse at last. Of course, the last point could change at any time. As I've pointed out before, Trump's verbal statements are almost useless as a guide to what he will actually do.
A few other items of note:
All of these people will be killed soon.
Most of the missiles fired by the regime during the recent period of fighting were fired at Arab countries, not at Israel.
It has been one hundred days since the theocracy crushed the Iranian people's uprising, slaughtering tens of thousands.
Inside Iran, there is no ceasefire. The regime has now brought in foreign Shiite militias to control the people -- essentially a foreign occupation.
posted by Infidel753 at 12:21 AM
5 Comments:
Good summary, Infidel. I wonder just how much longer that regime can sustain itself? When they start bringing in foreign vigilantes, that is most certainly a sign that their own forces have been depleted.
So heartbreaking about the people on death row…
What an awful country.
If this report is true, it definitely helps to explain the inconsistencies going on in Iran. I think that the naval blockade by the U.S. is only exacerbating matters financially to the remenants of the regime. It is hard to pay foreign militias, let alone your own IRGC etc., when your greatest source of revenue is contained from getting out of the Gulf. Regardless, the IRGC and any of the hard-line mullahs cannot be negotiated with in good faith. They would rather become martyrs than compromise with the Great Satan of America. It is hopeful that the end of this ghoulish regime is finally near at hand and that the people of Iran can breathe in freedom for the first time in nearly half a century.
Rade: Thanks. The stories of foreign militia being brought in to shore up the regime, at least, is definitely true -- I've seen it mentioned in several reliable sources.
Paula: It is. But that's how the theocracy has operated for forty-seven years. Frankly, those who get a clean death are the lucky ones.
Anvil: The tragedy is that historically it's been one of the great countries of the world. It's just the rulers who keep it trapped in this nightmare.
Darrell: Exactly. Any respite from the military campaign will just be used by the regime to rebuild its offensive capabilities and suppress opposition.
They have been having a lot of problems with paying anyone. Last I heard, the banking system is hardly functional. It probably won't be long before the foreign militia start looting the population. It's not their country, after all.
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