20 September 2008

Election predictions

It's now 45 days to the election. Here's what I think will most likely happen.

(1) McCain will win.

(2) The margin of victory will be large, at least five percentage points in the popular vote. A complete Electoral College blowout almost on the scale of 1972 or 1984 isn't inconceivable.

(3) In the days before the election, an ever-growing list of vapid celebrities and annoying bloggers will promise to leave the US permanently if McCain wins. After he wins, they won't leave.

(4) For a day or two after the election, there will be some sporadic violence, not from blacks but from the kind of would-be junior-Brownshirt types who tried to disrupt the Republican convention.

(5) In the wake of defeat, Obama cultists will denounce the voters as idiots, dupes, ignoramuses, racists, etc., while the loopier ones among them will indulge in dark conspiracy fantasies about rigged voting machines. The fanatics will drench the blogosphere with one last diarrheic torrent of the insults, "snark", and threats which have become the cult's trademark, aimed at PUMAs, women, older voters, rural voters, blue-collar voters, Republicans, whites who didn't vote for Obama, blacks who didn't vote for Obama, and the Clintons. This will go on for several weeks. Virtually none of the cultists will consider even the possibility that their own behavior before the election played a role in bringing about the loss.

(6) McCain will serve out his full four-year term, not dying or becoming incapacitated in office.

(7) It may take a year or so, but the cult's grip on the Democratic party will fade, many of those who were swept up in the mania will come to their senses, the present failed leadership will be swept away, and the forces of sanity will regain control. (If this doesn't happen, the PUMAs and like-minded people may permanently join an enlarged and diversified Republican coalition, consigning the Democrats to long-term minority status.)

As for 2012, I'm not foolish enough to make any predictions that far ahead -- but the very distinct possibility of a Palin-vs-(Hillary) Clinton Presidential race is intriguing to say the least.


Blogger Christy said...

You must trust your polling sources.

Or not mind being wrong.....

I agree with the possibility of most of the scenarios (except maybe the first).

I don't know about long-term Democratic Party minority status. It is interesting you use "minority" in that description.

Minorities will be a majority in our lifetime, and maybe the Dem. party can cater to them (more efficiently), or maybe the Rep. will....or something else.

20 September, 2008 12:09  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

You must trust your polling sources.

No prediction is 100% certain, but I'm fairly confident in my interpretation of the situation, some of which is based on polling data and some of which isn't.

I don't know about long-term Democratic Party minority status.

The party is in the process of driving away a big chunk of its traditional base. Older women and the working class are enormously important voting blocs. If the party fails to win them back, its electoral potential will be greatly diminished.

Minorities will be a majority in our lifetime

This is a common assertion, but for a variety of reasons I don't believe it will actually happen. In any case, as ethnic minorities become more culturally assimilated, their voting patterns are likely to more and more resemble those of the established majority.

Thanks for commenting.

20 September, 2008 16:32  
Blogger Ranch Chimp said...

Mr.Infidel..thank you for your "prediction"Sir. I know your a McCain supporter these day's and of coarse..I am an Obama supporter currently not a card carrying member of the "cult" though.We are still an animal species and very tribal,and in a weird sense,all cultist to some degree at this point of the species evolution.I never pay much attention to polls because they change like the weather at times.Besides,folks like myself never get polled,nor do the many first time voters,the young who dont have home phones,because they use cell's and so forth.So I leave an open door on polls.Trying to predict who folks are going to like or dislike to me is difficult..but to see what is taking shape however ...is not difficult..the events of peoples lives will contribute to these patterns of what or who they like...or dislike.As far as will minorities become the majority or what "cult" they will follow? I mean..I recall a time when no one would have thought Dallas would be minority ran for instance.The minorities basically run Dallas,and Dallas County even though in such a strong conservative state mostly votes dem these days,and would even be more so...but its just that most poor and minorities here dont vote,they feel its hopeless.I cant speak for PDX(Portland) for only having visited there once for a week(I love your city)..but growing up in towns like Dallas and LA,Houston...I can see how things are there.Believe it or not Dallas' school district alone is over 90/92% non white,it's also over twice the size of San Francisco's as well...so its not too small.The cities of Dallas,LA and Houston are also majority non white,quite different in contrast to PDX.As far as these brown shirts youth or whatever..heh,heh,heh,they will come and go as you say,what we will see more is others who will rebel.Your piece on Nationalism was good,but the type of nationalism taking place is not so good,at least folks will see in time.You say "defense" is an important issue.I also agree,but understand how intrical a part economics plays in "national security"..which will impact in time the thinking of the populace.Example..where would our surge in Iraq be if we hadnt given paychecks to those who were fighting against us to join with us..and what do we do when we run out of money? Borrow more from communist China? I think we owe them enough as it is...they will already have as well a very large investment in our financial market and say so.Much larger then we realize..heh,heh,heh.I have no predictions on how folks will think to come..but it is clearly evident the direction that our nation is heading,and most people dont see this,only because their too distracted and busy..or simply dont care,or dont like to see it.When they get slapped in the face with the changes to come,you can bet they will react.Celebs and bloggers leaving the country? heh,heh,heh..they do always claim that...dont they? Well...if what is taking shape happens...actually many will try to leave the country besides them..and not over a candidate or party either.Just simply because here for their tax dollar they will recieve nothing but words,not even domestic infrastructure repairs or anything,while in some other countries,even at higher taxes..they will get more for their buck as far as gvnmt support,health care and other items. Folks will actaully get tired if they see their money strictly going to other countries,corporations welfare..and the schlew of other things our new gvnmt will mandate. No...heh,heh,heh...I am not talking about doom and gloom nor think the sky is falling..I am simply saying that real"change" is about to come..and it may not be the change that peoples like,and this will be global.And..any animal react's when it is cornered, is all. Neither of these parties or candidates will be able to fix what is happening economically,it can only fix itself..nor can these bailouts do anything in the long term,nor can our gvmnt police the global free market and its instincts of greed and corrupt practices.I'll just shut up now.

20 September, 2008 18:16  
Blogger Christy said...

I think some working class Dems are bigots, and that's why Obama might lose them. I know the exit polls in my home state Kentucky showed that.

However, if the working class becomes what it fears, maybe the Dems will be stronger than ever.

20 September, 2008 18:25  
Anonymous Gary Hunt said...

Minorities will be a majority in our lifetime

This is a common assertion, but for a variety of reasons I don't believe it will actually happen.

????? Why not?

20 September, 2008 19:09  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

Ranch Chimp:

nor do the many first time voters,the young who dont have home phones,because they use cell's and so forth.

The claim that polls underrepresent young people because they don't call cell phone numbers is very widespread. It's also wrong.


I think some working class Dems are bigots, and that's why Obama might lose them.

I think Obama will lose most of those voters for the same reason Kerry and Dukakis lost them -- he comes across as aloof and culturally alien to them.

Bill Clinton won those voters because he resonated with them, he was someone they could relate to. I think Colin Powell could have done the same if he had run for President.

Of course racism exists in small-town and blue-collar America, just as it exists in big-city and suburban America, and in elite-academic America -- and in black America. I've seen no evidence that the working class is more guilty of racism than anyone else, though.

Gary Hunt:

Minorities will be a majority in our lifetime

This is a common assertion, but for a variety of reasons I don't believe it will actually happen.

????? Why not?

(1) As death rates approach zero 20-30 years from now due to the rise of anti-aging technology, the attrition of the existing population due to natural death will stop, slowing demographic changes. (2) Public opinion is turning against high immigration, and massively against allowing illegal aliens to stay here. Eventually the will of the people will be reflected in legislation. (3) Faster domestic population growth due to (1) will intensify opposition to immigration. (4) the definitions of "minority" and "white" evolve over time. Jewish, Italian, and Irish immigrants were once viewed as indigestible minorities which threatened white "Anglo-Saxon" majority status. Today their descendants are considered "white", not "minority". In 30 years many of the descendants of today's "Hispanics" and "Asians" will probably be considered "white", especially with escalating rates of intermarriage (already high with both groups). (5) Such predictions typically cover a 50-year period into the future. During the next 50 years, birth rates among both white and "minority" Americans will probably change due to factors that can't be foreseen today. Demographic projections spanning half a century are meaningless. There is probably no large, diverse nation whose present-day demographic situation could have been accurately predicted 50 years ago purely from the trends that were apparent at that time.

Thanks for commenting, all.

21 September, 2008 01:37  
Blogger Ranch Chimp said...

Well I appreciate your finding a blog or whatever that say's this is a myth.I actually never read any blog about this..from either side.But since I know and talk to so many people on the street,neighbors, family etc...especially young folks..(not online though..only in person)I never meet anyone who gets polled,even those of us who have cells,and landlines..I have both for instance..and would be more then happy to answer to a poll,even my daughters would or nephews or neighbors who are all young as well as older,I even ask folks how many folks they KNOW that get polled? So..whatever survey or blog I would read..of coarse...it still dont answer my question of why none of us get polled?...so you can see why this is puzzling to me...this has nothing to do with being for Obamanut's or whatever they call Obama voters or that I belong to some secret cult of theirs...I dont.But this subject makes questions come up to me...on who exactly are those who get polled? Thanx guy!

21 September, 2008 07:31  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

Well I appreciate your finding a blog or whatever

The blogger is quoting statements from the actual polling organizations describing their methods.

I never meet anyone who gets polled

That's because polls use very small sample sizes, usually in the low thousands. By the use of sophisticated statistical analysis, the pollsters can extract data from small samples whose probability of being accurate is within the normal 3% margin of error. Since they can do that, it would be a waste of money to poll larger samples.

With a typical poll surveying only one or two thousand people out of three hundred million, it's hardly surprising that any one person would not know anyone who has been polled.

Political campaign managers are not fools. If polls didn't deliver data with significant predictive value, they wouldn't spend so much money on them.

21 September, 2008 07:48  
Blogger Christy said...

I do agree that every group is racist...you ought to try to be named "Christy" and go to an ultra-Conservative synagogue.

But in THIS case, the particular prejudice, the admitted (on exit polls in the primary) racism of some working class Southerners is the issue.

These are my people, my family, back home in KY. I have moved on, but I know them to be good people, at heart.

I was just talking logistics, not comparitive judgement.

And I believe the IQ's are the same in the bar as the boardroom, too.

21 September, 2008 08:11  
Blogger Christy said...

I meant comparative.

(There goes my IQ theory.)

21 September, 2008 12:24  
Blogger Prash said...

I agree with you when you say "no polling is 100% certain". I have a Bachelor degree in Statistics (I know, such things exist!) and I like to share an anecdote.

The first day of my university. The dean of the department welcomes everybody and tell us "guys, you know what is statistics ? it is like a woman in a bikini suit..you know why ? I will tell you the day you graduate"

And, 3 years later, our graduation day came and we all of course forget about our first day in the university and his welcome speech. He said " Statistics is like a woman in a bikini suit, because it shows everything but the essential". We all laughed because we knew what he was talking about.

I really hope it won't be McCain.

21 September, 2008 19:55  

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