The presidency is not settled yet, but that's a technicality. Assuming the AP is correct on the states it has called -- and it usually is -- at this moment Trump has 267 electoral votes. To win, Harris would need to carry all six of the remaining un-called states, including Alaska -- and Trump is currently leading in all of those six except Maine. That's not impossible, but it's vanishingly unlikely. Trump might even win the popular vote this time. As for Congress, the Republicans have already won fifty-one Senate seats. It's too early to call the House, but if the Democrats take a majority there, it will be a very narrow one.
Abortion rights remained a potent issue. So far it appears that all of the abortion-rights referenda are passing except in South Dakota and Florida, and even the one in Florida got 57% of the vote; it failed only because amendments to the state constitution there require 60%. But apparently many people will vote for abortion rights while still voting for politicians who oppose them.
So what was different? Why didn't this election follow the post-Dobbs pattern? Two probable major factors suggest themselves:
1. Trump was on the ballot this time, unlike in any previous post-Dobbs election. Polling has long shown that Trump is more popular than the Republican party in general, and can motivate millions of supporters to turn out who wouldn't bother if he weren't there to vote for. Apparently there's truth in this. Of course, once those Trumpists were at the polls to support him, they also voted for other Republican politicians.
2. The immigration issue trumped the abortion issue in importance to voters. Immigration is strictly a federal responsibility, so in the state and local elections since Dobbs, it wasn't much of a factor. In a federal election, it is. Trump won his surprising initial Republican support in 2016 largely by talking bluntly about immigration -- expressing what so many Americans feel but had been inhibited from saying. Yes, anger at abortion restrictions was a powerful motivator in this election. But anger at an out-of-control influx of migrants, legal and illegal, was an even more powerful one, for an even larger number of voters. Trump promised tough, even harsh action on the issue, and it resonated. At first assessment, I think that this was the largest reason for yesterday's outcome.
I knew immigration was a big concern to a huge part of the electorate, but I thought the abortion-rights issue would outweigh it. Evidently I was mistaken.
There's a more fundamental issue which this election result shows we need to confront head-on.
I am fucking sick and tired of people constantly saying they just can't understand why anybody would vote for the other side. You had damn well better start trying to understand -- to really understand, to ask, listen, learn, and comprehend -- as opposed to mindlessly smearing half the country as stupid, racist, fascist, insane, etc. Being unable to understand something is not a virtue. Nobody ever won an argument by standing around slack-jawed with shock that anybody could be so depraved as to have opinions and priorities different from their own. You're not going to win elections that way either. The most profound problem with politics in this country is that so many people, at both political extremes, refuse to read or listen to or expose themselves to any argument or source of information that comes from a viewpoint different from what they already hold, as if contact with heresy would somehow contaminate them. If you want to appeal to people, and ultimately persuade them to vote differently than they have in the past, you need to put away the name-calling and lecturing and be willing to learn and listen. You don't need to agree with them. But you do need to understand them. Whichever side is more willing to do this will gain a substantial future advantage. And it's the only way we're ever going to overcome this accursed polarization which has turned politics into a nightmare for that majority of us who just want peace and quiet and pragmatic solutions, not this constant shrieking hysteria about how evil the opposite party (from whichever viewpoint) is.
I'll have more to say about this in another day or two after I've had more time to think about it.
Well, I suppose I didn't understand why any American would want a Dictatorship over a Democracy, but then, have they ever had a point of reference? In most cases, No. So, they'll realize what they have done after all the consequences settle of having an American Hitler handed the Country... it's not like it's his first term, so, was there mass amnesia and a desire for more Chaos and dismantling of all the checks and balances? So, no, I do not understand that and I've tried to. I guess the Hope of cheap Eggs and Gas was exchanged for Freedom? It's the only explanation any who were devoted to him could give me as why they were gravitating in that direction regardless of how unhinged and how violent, scary and Hitleresque the rhetoric became. My DH Served 39 Years defending and protecting Democracy, my Dad Served 27... and numerous other Loved ones and he has shown nothing but contempt towards our Service Members and Veterans... so, No, he will never be my President and the divide in this Country has so little common ground now that Unity seems like a thing of the Past, which, makes me Heartsick actually. I can agree to disagree with civility, I have not seen that from the other side... they seem to think fellow Americans that disagree are the Enemy from Within and he has no intention of being a President for ALL the people and we know this, he's said so, openly and without apology.
ReplyDeleteDid you actually read what I wrote? It's not about cheap eggs and gas (though people being angry about inflation may have played a minor role), it's primarily about immigration.
DeleteTrump is a very bad person, but he's not Hitler, and this is not the Weimar republic. For the last ten years I've been hearing people from both sides saying that if their side loses whatever the next election was, it would mean the end of democracy, no more elections, etc. They've both suffered some losses in that time and democracy is still here. Yes, this election result is very bad for the country, but we need to keep a sense of proportion.
Also I’m in Florida and I don’t get a sense immigration legal or otherwise is a problem in my area. Just had my roof replaced. They were all Mexican. They pick all the crops and do the labor no one else will do. So please explain to me why immigrants legal and not, are so hated. Is it really just skin color or language or is it something more sinister. I truly do not get the hatred so many have for them. The majority, not all, just want a better life. So explain this from the right wings point of view please. Mary
DeleteYep, read every word, but disagree that Immigration was the major issue, at least here in Arizona, where we have a lot of Immigrants, Inflation was the major issue. Even tho', Post-Pandemic, we are enjoying the biggest recovery Globally than any other Nation. I still think cheaper commodities was most desired... and yet, ridiculous Tariff's on what is imported and produced abroad and deporting the Labor Force that keeps what is Produced here low, isn't the Solution. I respectfully agree to disagree, I guess everyone had their reasons for what they Voted for or against... but, it is very bad for our Nation and his Admiration and Ideology from Hitler are chilling parallels, a sense of proportion is subjective tho'.
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ReplyDeleteUnless they are, in fact, "stupid, racist, fascist, insane, etc".
Neighbor voted for Trump because he sent her a check for $2000. His name was on the check. And re-elected he will send her another $2000. I tried to explain how the DEMs thought up the payment; fought for it against GOP resistance; pushed it through. All the GOP had to do was sign the paper. But Trump had his name on it.
Another neighbor was all about the immigration thing. He listens to talk radio and they rub salt in four times an hour. overblown claims of 100,000 a year. We know half go back. But 100k sounds huge. Until you look up the US population over 340,000,000. An issue in 100 years perhaps. This is innumeracy.
Down the street a 70 yo man is living on SS. Well documented that the GOP wants to end SS. He claims it's safe because he is 'grandfathered in' and can't lose his lifeline. I suggested he call SS. Clerk told him, off the record, that 'grandfathered in' isn't a thing and is subject to cuts like every other program. He cussed a bit, but is still sure his income is secure.
Most Americans have been inculcated that 'it can't happen here', that we are exceptional. That free-markets and the 'good guys' will always look after them. That Trump is a safe choice. The fairness fairy will smooth the road in front of them. That has been their experience for over 50 years.
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DeleteI tried listening patiently and trying to understand. All were completely sure that their reason was their main and strongest case and that all contradictory evidence is false. It was more than three. Reason and understanding doesn't work if belief isn't based on reason or understanding.
Immigration is a straw man. Little actual danger. Simple fact is we need immigrants and their presence keeps tax coffers in the black and inflation under control. Stop immigration and inflation will top 10% and major industries will close. Starting with agriculture, old-age healthcare, hospitality, home-building and roofing. But sure, we can stop immigration. Easy. And you 'don't need no stink'in wall'. Pass a law outlawing the employment of illegal immigrants with a penalty of $1000 per day, per person. Boom ... no more problem. The expensive part comes a bit later.
And, of course Trump wanted the problem more than a solution. Trump had four years ... nada. Except for that small exerciser in performative cruelty. Official numbers changed. Actual numbers didn't. Things went below the RADAR. More by airliner and Canada. Fewer where they were likely to get manhandled and abused. Immigrants adapt ... who knew that was a thing?
The only real solution that comes to mind is getting out. If this dictatorship operates true to form if you leave early enough you can take it with you. Later, not so much. We are getting our passports and researching transferring assets. Country/territory to be named later. We will stick for a few months but leaving and coming back, rested and refreshed from a nice vacation, is going to be easier than getting out if it gets nasty. Trump might not be dedicated enough to go that far but the group surrounding him now clearly are.
What he excelled at was being a good salesman. Tell em what you're going to tell them. Tell them. Then tell them what you told them. And Always be closing the sale. He did that with immigration.
ReplyDeleteOne thing you didn’t mention was the economy and inflation. Even though both were getting better, it’s still the pocketbook that rules and even though much was due to corporate greed and profit taking, the individual pocketbook again rules. I have no doubt it will be much worse in the future, but hindsight is always too late. Mary
ReplyDeleteWell said. That’s the best way forward. I look forward to hearing more from you.
ReplyDeleteMary: It's fairly common with that kind of antipathy to a large group that people make exceptions for individuals they know. Also, it's not really a matter of illegals being hated. It'smore a sense that there are too many of them and they're changing the character of the country. If the numbers were much smaller, it wouldn't be so much of an issue. I'll have more about this later, probably next week.
ReplyDeleteI do think inflation played a role. Prices are no longer going up much, but they haven't gone back down to what people consider normal. I myself no longer buy some grocery items I regularly used to, because they're too expensive now. The irony is that Harris did actually have a proposal to address this problem, namely a law against retail price-gouging. In hindsight she should have put a lot more emphasis on that.
Anon 6:33: Unless they are, in fact, "stupid, racist, fascist, insane, etc"
Some are, some aren't. Either way, it's of practical benefit to (a) refrain from slinging such epithets and (b) try to understand why they have the views and priorities they do. But if you want to be part of the reason for more election nights like we just saw, by all means carry on.
Regardless of how many illegals enter per year, we cannot continue endlessly with a situation where there are about eleven million in the country and everybody just kind of puts up with it. This is unsustainable and makes a mockery of our immigration laws. It's not reasonable to expect people to tolerate it. Even legal immigration is higher than what people are comfortable with.
Seafury: Trump has always been basically a con man, which implies most of the same things. But you don't stay this popular for eight years unless there's a real demand for what you're selling. Trump tapped into the mass anger about high immigration and positioned himself as the voice of it, but the anger was there all along. He didn't create it.
Carol: Thank you! I expect to have at least two more posts about this, one later this week and the other probably next week.
"it's hard to make predictions, especialy about the future."
ReplyDeleteWinston Churchill once said: "America will always make the right choice, after exhausting all other alternatives." I guess we're in one of those "...exhausting all other alternatives" phases.
Infidel, I want to thank you for your reasoned and sober post. I must ashamedly admit that I have been guilty myself of some of the very things you listed regarding demonization. I am going to strive to do better. You are absolutely right that we need to try and understand each other, even or especially when we disagree. That is why I enjoy coming to your site with its reasoned explanations for your positions. You and I share common ground on some important issues. Those commonalities amongst all Americans is what We The People need to focus on. Ultimately on most issues we all want the same things, it is often how that is achieved that becomes the sticking point. Thanks again for your reasoned voice on this.
ReplyDeleteAnon: As to predictions, one does the best one can. I assessed the evidence available as best I could; I don't feel too bad about just the fact that I got this one wrong, since even Ann Selzer got it wrong.
ReplyDeleteThe country has survived far worse things than a second Trump term. We'll survive this too.
Darrell: Thanks. Unfortunately we live at a time when scorched-earth hatred for opposing opinions and those who hold them has become normative, and is even viewed by some as morally obligatory. I have argued against this for a long time and intend to continue doing so. Never forget that the great majority of Americans, many of them not even particularly centrist, are exhausted with the polarization and demonization and want to overcome it. Right now, the rage on the left and triumphalism on the right (if our side had won, perhaps it would have been the other way around), will make this more difficult, but all we can do is persevere. Eventually the most rational people will start thinking in terms of how to make the best of things.
Anon 8:50: Some people are reachable by facts and logic, some aren't. It remains a fact that the two opposite extremes mostly avoid any contact with each other's ideas. That needs to change.
ReplyDeleteI agree that we should have strictly implemented E-Verify a long time ago, with strong punishments for those who hire illegals. It's probably still the best way of addressing the problem.
Having eleven million people permanently in the country in violation of immigration law is itself corrosive to the rule of law. Continuing to advocate tolerance of this means continuing to lose elections.
There isn't going to be a dictatorship. If you want to push that kind of talk, please take it elsewhere. And good luck finding a decent country that wants to take in a bunch of panicky Americans as permanent residents.
See the comments policy, point 4.
Well I was a bit shocked when he won but we got through the last time he won and we'll get through this time as well.
ReplyDeleteCertainly the country will. Not so sure about me personally, but there are so many unknowns about what will happen.
ReplyDeleteI’m sure you will. You are a smart man intellectually and otherwise, I’m sure.
DeleteFortunately I don’t have to deal with any trumpers, my choice. But I have friends that do and many just avoid politics, but some try to reason sincerely with them, show them legitimate sources and even government or business statistics etc. and they simply don't or won’t even consider it may be correct. So how do we come together with that. Mary
Mary: I hope so. My health isn't that great. I wouldn't bet a lot on my chances of making it another four years, or even necessarily wanting to. If the Republicans wreck Social Security and I become homeless, I couldn't survive a week.
ReplyDeleteI hate arguing myself, and avoid doing it. But I regularly read right-wing sites even if I rarely engage with them. It's the only way to get an accurate sense of what they're thinking.