Election day

Well, here we are at last.  If you haven't already, vote now or forever hold your peace.

It looks more and more to me like my assessment of two weeks ago was correct and we're going to see a genuine blue wave.  Even some in the media are starting to talk about the possibility; the Selzer poll in Iowa seems to have made them feel more open to doing so.  The fact that Selzer has a history of being so accurate suggests she's the one pollster who is not failing to pick up on the Dobbs effect.  Trump carried Iowa by eight points in 2020.  If Harris is now three points ahead, that's an eleven-point shift relative to four years ago.  That's very large, but it's consistent with the shift toward Democrats in all those local and special elections all over the country since Dobbs.  And if that shift is going to show up in this election as well, it certainly won't be confined to Iowa.  It's just that Iowa has a pollster accurate enough to detect it.

I suspect that Dobbs will be remembered as the political equivalent of Pearl Harbor -- a shock attack that seemed like a huge victory for the right wing, but in reality triggered a massive backlash that ended up crushing them.

Anyway, take comfort in the fact that this interminable, grinding slog of a campaign will finally be over.  It feels like it's been dragging on since forever, but win or lose, today is finally the last of it.  No more political ads, no more rallies, no more polls, no more breathless MSM headlines about polls, no more experts parsing the latest gaffe or analyzing how the left-handed Albanian-American Gen-X bisexual vote is trending.  It's going to feel like the sudden end of a year-long migraine.

A few last links:

Here is some useful information for voters, including phone numbers to use if you run into difficulties.

FFS do not get your election info from chatbots or any other bullcrap "AI" thing.  They're just generating incorrect information the same way they do about everything else.

Harrison Ford has a heartfelt endorsement.

You can't brush off what Trump says as being merely rhetoric.

Elon Musk's ridiculous parody of a GOTV operation seems to be self-destructing, at least in Michigan.

Extremist groups such as QAnon and the Proud Boys are running out of steam, and less likely to mobilize to support Trump in fighting the election results.

The inevitable whining and bitching have already begun.

Some men's primitive assertions of a "right" to control women show exactly why it's so important that women vote free of pressure or coercion.

Men, too -- don't be pressured by friends.

Trump won't rule out banning some vaccines if elected.

More here on why most polls probably have it wrong.

Here's another data point from rural Michigan.

Trump's last two rallies were low-turnout duds.

Here's a late round-up of encouraging news.

Vote for Trump only if you want to screw everything up.

RedState tries to debunk the Selzer Iowa poll.  They sound a bit panicky to me.

A right-wing blogger asked "why would people vote for Kamala?"  I did take a shot at explaining here, but this really needs someone with more stomach for ongoing back-and-forth arguments than I have.

Even in states with no abortion-rights initiative on the ballot, the issue is still shaping the election.