09 November 2022

Immediate post-election observations

There was no red wave.  There was no blue wave.  Most incumbents got re-elected.  Whichever side ends up controlling the House and Senate will have a razor-thin margin.

Turnout was very high on both sides and the process ran smoothly pretty much everywhere, so it was a big win for democracy.

If the Republicans get the House majority, the margin will be small and the faction-riddled caucus will be difficult to keep unified.  It may be that Democrats will still be able to pass occasional decent legislation by peeling off a few Republican votes.  The really loopy stuff, like holding the debt ceiling hostage, may not work since just a few Republican defectors could undermine it.

There were some important state-level victories.  Vermont, Michigan, Kentucky, and California voted by referendum to protect abortion rights -- abortion is clearly a losing issue for the right wing.  Illinois passed a ballot measure to strengthen unions, while Missouri passed one to legalize marijuana.  Democrats won the Michigan state senate after forty years of Republican control.

Here in Oregon, the ballot measure I mentioned on Monday to take pro-slavery language out of the state constitution did pass, but more than half a million people voted against it.

The exasperating Lauren Boebert appears to have lost re-election.

Democrats need to stop trying to make Beto O'Rourke happen.  An open and confirmed gun-grabber is never going to win any statewide office in Texas.  It's just not possible.

If there was one big loser yesterday, it was Trump.  Most of the major candidates he foisted on his party via his endorsements were defeated, some of them losing close races that a better candidate might have won.  His intra-party arch-rival DeSantis won re-election as governor by a huge margin, boosting his stature and cementing his position as the dominant Republican alternative to Trump.  The rivalry between the two will likely dominate the party from now until the 2024 race, perhaps dividing it severely.

But this election is over, and that's a hell of a relief.


Blogger SickoRicko said...

A big relief! Thanks for this update.

09 November, 2022 16:45  
Blogger Bohemian said...

I wonder if we could put 45 and DeInsanitis in a Gladiator type fight to the Death and with any luck, neither would survive? Just a fantasy, but I'd buy tickets to that one.

09 November, 2022 18:25  
Blogger CAS said...

Living in Michigan, I'm feeling very good about things. The last time Democrats controlled the state's senate, house, and governor's seat was 1982. One reason behind the long dry spell was gerrymandered districts that became increasingly unfair to Democrats over the years. That changed last year with a citizen-led initiative to take redistricting out of the hands of partisan legislators. Perhaps the attempt to kidnap and murder our governor also dissuaded a few right-wing voters away from their normal course of action.

Sigh of relief is right. There's a lot to be happy about. The system seems to have held up despite all of the violent threats that were made during the campaign. I believe I heard today that all of the Republican election deniers that lost a major race have conceded to their Democratic rivals. That's huge.

Lastly, I live in a college town and we had record numbers of students turning out to vote and they were willing to stand in line for hours at polling places that were overwhelmed by the unexpected throng of participants. I hope these young people realize how much their efforts mattered. We need them going forward.

09 November, 2022 20:46  
Blogger NickM said...

Ron DeSantis is the future for the Republicans. I am not saying that is a good thing but he is young, smart, competent and will carry Florida which means a lot of weight in the college. Whatever one thinks of DeSantis he is the end for Trump...

10 November, 2022 05:20  
Blogger Shaw Kenawe said...

Not a surprise in Massachusetts, but Maura Healy, an openly gay candidate and former AG of Mass., won the governorship and Andrea Campbell, who's African-American, is our new Attorney General. Both firsts for Mass.

The Republican Party of Massachusetts ran a MAGA candidate, Geoff Diehl, instead of staying with our very popular non-Trumpian governor, Charlie Baker. IOW, the Mass. Republican Party cut off its nose to spite its face. Healy drubbed Diehl, and the MAGA Party lost a governorship in a blue state. What was the reasoning behind that? Who knows.

Your analysis sounds correct.

10 November, 2022 07:35  
Blogger Lady M said...

No Boebart has not lost yet. There are only 60 votes between the two - there will certainly be a recount.

10 November, 2022 08:34  
Blogger VoenixRising said...

Amen, brother! (And to everyone who commented ahead of me!)

10 November, 2022 08:41  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

Ricko: Indeed -- the MSM were pushing the red wave thing so hard, I had been getting concerned.

Bohemian: A nice fantasy. Given their relative sizes, I suspect that Trump would immediately have a heart attack and topple over onto DeSantis, squashing him -- so it would be a draw.

CAS: Yes, your state seems to have had a very good day. And it's striking that very few losing candidates have claimed the election was stolen (some right-wing blogs and crank websites like Gateway Pundit are claiming that, but not many candidates), and I haven't heard of any violence. Maybe things really are getting back to normal after the Trump nightmare.

I've heard mixed reports about the youth vote, but it does seem to have increased somewhat. Maybe the loan forgiveness program helped.

NickM: We'll see. I think Trump will keep trying to undermine him, even if he's indicted, and he still has a lot of fervent supporters. The ideal outcome would be for the Republicans to end up divided.

Shaw: They must have been nuts to nominate a Trumpy candidate for a state a blue as Massachusetts. Well, they threw away a governorship. The same thing seems to have happened in Maryland.

Openly gay leaders are no longer a rarity, it seems. Oregon's new governor is also a lesbian, but as far as I've heard it wasn't an issue at all.

Lady M: Drat. Well, one can hope.

Voenix: Thanks! I think a lot of people are relieved.

10 November, 2022 10:41  
Blogger CAS said...

I think the abortion issue was a big motivator for young women. Throughout the day, I saw groups of women walk in together to cast their ballots.

10 November, 2022 11:50  
Blogger Lady M said...

Shit - Bimbo Boebert is leading by 800 votes with 96% counted so it looks like she won.

10 November, 2022 14:00  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

CAS: I can't imagine that it wouldn't be.

Lady M: It ain't over till the last voter sings.

10 November, 2022 20:54  
Anonymous Annie said...

Today (Friday) it’s looking likely that the Democrats will begin the next session with a 51- vote majority. And there’s still a teensy chance that the Democrats will squeak out a House majority—though if Boebert wins, it becomes less likely. But I think the mood has changed nationwide, and “crazy” has lost its cachet—if it ever had one. All things considered, we have some breathing room to bolster our troubled democracy.

11 November, 2022 14:45  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

Annie: The Senate is looking better and better. Looking at which Republicans lost and which ones won, voters definitely rejected the extremists and flaming nutballs. There will be more on that in tomorrow's link round-up.

12 November, 2022 07:20  
Blogger Tommykey said...

If there was one state where Republicans did well, it was my state of New York. They flipped a number of House seats, partly due to a messy redistricting process. Interestingly, in congressional district 3 where I live, both the Democratic and Republican candidates were gay men.

12 November, 2022 19:30  
Anonymous Reaganite Independent said...

The Dems just took the Senate a couple hours ago, now Georgia doesn’t matter quite so much. Still would be helpful to win down there though, can’t imagine having a slushhead like Herschel Walker as a US senator- if we’re still trying to preach democracy worldwide while electing unqualified, non-serious people to important positions— that doesn’t help our argument

12 November, 2022 23:02  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

Tommykey: I've read about that -- from what I've seen, the Democrats in New York were dismissive about voters' concerns about crime, and got creamed, perhaps deservedly so. The Democrat still won the governorship, though.

I find it hard to imagine a gay Republican politician getting very far these days. If he starts to rise, the fundies will throw a fit.

Reaganite: Yep. A 51-49 majority would mean Democrats can do without the vote of either Manchin or Sinema, though not both. That's significant to Democrats, but not so much to Republicans. It's hard to see them spending millions just to, in effect, give Manchin and Sinema some power back.

Walker as a senator would become a standing joke. Now that McConnell is doomed to remain in the minority regardless, he'd probably rather not spend the next six years dealing with the guy.

13 November, 2022 00:02  
Blogger Tommykey said...

Yes, I hope the NY Dems learn their lessons and clean up their act.

13 November, 2022 11:36  

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