Putin's nuclear threats

Putin has been hinting that he might respond to the West's sanctions and military aid to Ukraine by escalating to nuclear weapons.  How worried should we be about this?

I am not very worried about it, for two reasons.  First, the US and European governments have access to far better information and analysis of the situation (including Russian intentions and capabilities) than the rest of us do, and they don't seem to be deterred by Putin's threats at all.  They are continuing to tighten sanctions and send more weapons to Ukraine.  Clearly they don't believe a unilateral nuclear escalation by Russia is at all likely -- and they're in the best position to know.

Second, there are already growing signs of open opposition to Putin's war among the Russian military, government, and oligarchs.  None of those people want to see their own country destroyed, as it would be if a nuclear attack by Putin against a NATO target resulted in escalation to an all-out nuclear exchange.  If he actually seemed about to order such a dangerous act, it seems more than likely that cooler heads would stop the order from being carried out or even remove him from power.  Remember, the Russian state is essentially a mafia.  In the US, veneration for Constitutional rules would make it very hard for the military to step in and remove a president even if he seemed on the brink of doing something that risked destroying the country.  But a mafia has no such veneration for rules or persons.  If an organized-crime gang realizes that their leader is about to do something crazy which will bring ruin and death to them all, they won't hesitate to remove him.

NATO, for its part, has been careful to avoid actions that carry serious risk of nuclear escalation.  This is why options such as NATO troops going to Ukraine to fight, or a NATO-enforced no-fly zone over Ukraine (which would mean NATO forces shooting down Russian planes which defied it) have been ruled out.  Any scenario in which Russian and NATO forces are directly fighting each other would pose too much risk of escalation to an all-out NATO-Russian war -- and must therefore be avoided.

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I've mentioned Kyiv Independent as a good source of updates on the war.  There's also this Ukrainian government site set up to provide updates and other resources.  I've also been following reports on the BBC, CNN, Deutsche Welle, Al-Jazeera, and Voice of America, among others.

The US secretary of state believes Ukraine can win the war.

Here's the reality behind Russia's famed and feared VDV paratroopers.

Here's an example of how Russia's inadequate maintenance of military equipment degrades its performance in ways that wouldn't happen in the West.

More here on that huge stalled Russian convoy outside Kyiv, which appears to be running out of just about everything.

A Canadian blogger living in Ukraine reports from the scene.  His blog in general is worth checking out.

This baby girl, named Mia, was born on the second day of the war in a Kyiv metro station being used as a bomb shelter.

The Daily Overview has pictures of the civilian exodus from Ukraine.  So far about one million people have fled, mostly to Poland.

Before-and-after pictures show the tremendous damage being done by Russian missile attacks (found via Miss Cellania).

Shelling Europe's largest nuclear reactor may be the stupidest thing the Russians have done yet.

Anti-war protests in Russia continue despite the crackdown (found via Keith).  Short video clip here from St Petersburg.

Putin's regime isn't much better at propaganda than at anything else.

See some images inspired by the conflict.

When all else fails, use witchcraft.


More footage of Bayraktar drones in action.  The Bayraktar has a cruising speed of just eighty miles per hour, so that fact that they remain in widespread use (and I have not heard of any of them being shot down by Russian fighter planes) shows that Russia still has not achieved air superiority.