Invasion insanity

The news coming out of Ukraine grows increasingly bizarre.  The Russian army, an alleged superpower military force operating just a few miles from its home territory, has so far failed to capture even one major Ukrainian city.  Russia has not completely destroyed Ukraine's air defenses or achieved full air superiority.  There are reports of Russian armored vehicles running out of fuel, of Russian soldiers looting grocery stores for food or trying to trade gasoline for food, of soldiers taken prisoner who did not even have maps or other basic supplies.  If even half these stories are true, the level of logistical incompetence revealed is astounding.  US intelligence says that the Russians didn't bring enough fuel because they didn't expect such strong resistance (not enough fuel for four days???).  This is not the Red Army that once ground the mighty Wehrmacht into the dirt, that's for sure.

There have been graphics in the media showing the huge advantage Russia's military has over Ukraine's in manpower and weapons.  Remember, though, that not everything Russia has is available for use in Ukraine.  As a huge country with global aspirations, Russia has many other places of importance -- borders, bases, etc -- which must be manned and armed.  It can't just forget everything else and send all those weapons and men to Ukraine.  The Ukrainian military, by contrast, is 100% committed to this war.  Its country is being invaded -- there is nothing else for it to do except fight back against that.  This does not create a level playing field, but the real imbalance is not so huge as comparing the total forces of the two countries would suggest.

Putin is said to be furious, having expected Ukraine's resistance to collapse almost immediately.  His frustration probably reflects deeper concerns than just Ukraine itself.  His goal is to assert Russia's strength and restore the superpower status it held in Soviet times.  His invasion of Ukraine is increasingly doing the opposite -- making Russia look weak and incompetent.

Russia's weakness is being revealed in a subtler but equally important way.  Putin's efforts to draw Ukraine back under Russian domination consisted of threats which ultimately escalated into actual military force, first in Crimea and Donbas in 2014, then with the current invasion.  When Sweden and Finland reacted to the invasion by talking about joining NATO, he threatened them with unspecified nasty consequences if they did so.  Now he's responding to the West's rapidly-escalating sanctions with vague but scary talk about putting Russia's nuclear forces on alert.  Threats are all he has.  Russia can bully, but it cannot entice.  Since the Soviet collapse, the countries of eastern Europe have been gravitating toward the West because they want to, because the West represents democracy, prosperity, freedom, pluralistic societies, and a colorful and variegated mass culture, things that people actually want.  Russia under Putin can offer only grey fascism, corruption, censorship, economic stagnation, brutality toward dissenters, and the weary migraine background noise of omnipresent propaganda that eastern Europeans remember all too well from Soviet times.  Nothing could induce anyone to choose this over fellowship with the civilization represented by London and Paris -- nothing, that is, except threats.  And even threats aren't working any more.

I'm wondering if this might be the beginning of the end of Putin's regime.  Nuclear saber-rattling in response to economic sanctions sounds unhinged, and it's not only the West that has reason for concern.  If Russia's military and its powerful oligarchs start to worry that Putin might escalate this conflict into a nuclear war that would destroy Russia itself, they're in a position to do something about it.

A few more links of interest:

Part of the reason Ukrainians hate Russian domination is that Stalin deliberately starved millions of them to death in the 1930s.

Germany is committing to a huge rise in military spending.  What decades of US pressure could not do, Putin has accomplished in four days.

Verified charities here to help Ukraine.

This is another way of understanding the Russia-Ukraine relationship.

Pictures here from pro-Ukraine demonstrations around the world.

This surreal encounter between a Ukrainian motorist and a Russian tank crew on a country road suggests how weird things are getting.  And this short clip purports to show a farmer stealing a tank.

Even PornHub is imposing sanctions on Russia.

[Image at top:  smoke after a missile hit an apartment building in Kyiv]