The "Republican civil war" is already over

Many of us hoped that, especially in the wake of the January 6 lynch-mob attack on the Capitol, the Republicans would be crippled by a split between fervent Trumpanzees and those seeking to drag the party back to sanity and the real world.  I was a little skeptical of this, given that the latter group just didn't seem large enough to make a serious bid for control of the party, but the vigor we'd seen from groups like the Lincoln Project and the post-January-6 openness of major figures like Lynne Cheney and Moscow Mitch to a second Trumpeachment offered some basis for hope.

Well, forget it.  The "Republican civil war" is already pretty much over.  The winning side is just mopping up the last few pockets of resistance.

Wyoming is in an uproar against Cheney, who seems likely to face a serious primary challenge in 2022.  The Arizona Republican party has censured three prominent members who dared cross Trump, including the sitting governor of the state.  Other state parties are embracing QAnon qrackpottery and conspiratardia.  Fox News is purging staffers who aren't Trumpy enough.  A mainstream conservative group is raising hundreds of thousands of dollars for Josh Hawley, the flagship wingnut of the new insane Republicanism (after Trump himself).  The Republican rank-and-file is erupting in fury against party "leaders" who didn't do enough to help Trump overturn the election, and those leaders have gotten the message.  Some who criticized Trump are now reversing themselves, or announcing that they won't seek re-election.  It's becoming clear that the party establishment won't do anything about the deranged Marjorie Taylor Greene.  In the recent vote on the constitutionality of Trumpeachment engineered by Rand Paul, 45 of 50 Republican senators -- including McConnell -- voted against moving forward, strongly suggesting they'll vote against conviction too.

(It's now obvious that this impeachment is as big a waste of time as the first one.  Best to get it over with as quickly as possible so that Congress can return to its actual work -- of which there is certainly plenty to do.  Conventional prosecution for his financial crimes, and perhaps for sedition, has a very good chance of putting Trump behind bars for a lot more than just the next four years.)

So there will be no split on the right.  Trump won't establish a new wingnut party to rival the Republican party -- there's no need, when his followers are taking over the latter intact.  Trump is not dividing the Republicans, he's uniting them.  Leaders who challenge him are being driven out, marginalized, or scared into submission.  Even if Trump goes to prison, the dominance of lunacy -- QAnon, the "sovereign citizen" movement, and whatever other madness they come up with next -- is so entrenched that it will continue without him.  He might even become a more potent rallying figure as a martyr than as an active, blundering politician.  Hawley could step in as his avatar and prophet, carrying on the messiah's work.

We may still gain something from the Republicans' descent into madness.  There's some evidence of substantial party-switching in some states, as centrist voters who joined for the tax cuts and law-and-order decide they can't stomach all the sedition and conspiratardia.  Large majorities support Biden's most visible policy changes.  If even two or three percent of Republican voters abandon the party, that could make a difference in close states or districts.  If even one moderate Republican senator switches parties, it would increase the margin of error for passing urgent reforms.

But we need to stop thinking of the Republicans as divided in any meaningful way.  That's already over.  The party has chosen its path, and it's the path of Trump.