Trump has covid-19

Donald and Melania Trump have tested positive for the virus.

Realistically, this shouldn't come as a surprise.  Over the last few months several politicians and religious leaders who downplayed the pandemic have been infected, and a few have died.  The precautions they mocked do, in fact, have good reasons behind them.

My first thought on hearing this news was that it may finally induce him to acknowledge the seriousness of the crisis.  Many on the right suffer from a peculiarly cramped sense of empathy -- they seem unable to acknowledge an issue until it strikes home at them personally in some way.  There have, for example, been cases of anti-gay politicians who suddenly became more sympathetic after one of their own children came out as gay, and I regularly see comments on right-wing blogs to the effect that covid-19 is a hoax because nobody the commenter personally knows has come down with it.  If Trump's case becomes symptomatic, will even he, as bizarrely emotionally-limited as he is, have a change of heart on the issue?  One can at least give credit for telling the truth about the diagnosis, rather than trying to hide it in order to preserve the narrative.

Given what we know of covid-19, the risk to Trump is serious.  He is 74, weighs 240 pounds, does not exercise, eats a terribly unhealthy diet, and is routinely under considerable stress.  Melania, who is much younger and to all appearances much healthier, is thus in less danger, but the virus sometimes does not spare even those who seem least susceptible.

There are obvious political implications.  For one thing, it's now far less likely that the remaining presidential debates will take place.  If Trump develops a serious case of the disease, he will be incapacitated to some degree during the final weeks before the election.  Since covid-19 often leaves survivors with permanent damage to major organs, including the brain, a serious case could raise questions about his ability to do the job even among those who have so far refused to recognize that he's already hardly doing it.

On the other hand, if he gets through this without serious symptoms, he and his supporters will feel vindicated in their downplaying of the disease.  Trumpanzees and covidiots generally will become even more resistant to taking precautions, helping the pandemic get even further out of control.

If Trump were to die, of course, the impact would be enormous.  His personality cult would not easily transfer its enthusiasm to Pence.  Many Trumpanzees, desperate to preserve the narrative, would deny that he had died of covid-19 (even though he announced it himself) and would instead scream that the "deep state" or the Satanic pedophile conspiracy had struck him down just as he was finally about to move against them.  If president Pence were to appoint a new vice president, that person would require confirmation by both houses of congress, confirmation which the Democratic House might deny on one basis or another, especially given the anger over the rushed Coney Barrett nomination.  This would leave Pelosi next in line.  Conservative voters who have felt compelled to support Biden due to Trump's unique repulsiveness might find Pence more acceptable, making the presidential race closer -- but if Trumpanzees unexcited by Pence stayed home, that would have an offsetting effect.

Let this, at least, serve as a warning to those who disdain precautions.  If all the resources available to the White House could not keep the president safe when he refused to take the threat seriously, what are your chances?