The coming decline of the cities

Urbanization has been increasing for centuries, but that trend may be about to go into reverse.  I believe core cities as we know them are doomed to decline, for two major reasons -- one general, the other specific to the US.

1.  Working from home is the new normal, and this will remain true even after the pandemic is over.  Globally, 76% of office workers want to continue working from home even after the pandemic; for the US the figure is 82%.  For the UK it's almost 90%.  This was surely inevitable.  Working from home, you don't need to waste half an hour each way plowing through traffic (or even longer on a bus or train).  You save a lot of money on gas and parking.  You don't need to worry about bullshit like office dress codes.  You don't need to worry about catching the flu or whatever from some idiot who decided to come to work despite being sick.  You're at home with all your own stuff -- if you want to eat something, you've got what you like instead of having to choose from vending machines full of junk food or an expensive eatery.  I've been working from home now since mid-March and I can't imagine ever going back to the way it was.  In the future, companies that don't offer work-from-home -- at least for most days of the week -- are going to be dead in the water when competing for the best employees.

Work-from-home also benefits employers -- in many cases it improves worker productivity and morale.  Fujitsu plans to reduce its office space by half, which will save a ton of money, and companies worldwide will soon realize they can achieve massive savings the same way, with most employees working from home most of the time.

The problem for the cities is that a lot of downtown businesses are dependent on all those office workers for revenue.  Owners of office buildings, likewise, will see their rental income plummet as companies reduce the space they use.  The British government is already launching a campaign to encourage workers to return to offices, fearing that core cities will become "ghost towns" otherwise.  That's hopeless.  No amount of exhortation can overcome such powerful incentives for both employees and employers.  The fact is, the old model of dragging everybody into a central location to do jobs that can be mostly done over the internet has been obsolete for a decade.  I always thought that a transition to working from home as the norm would require a generational turnover of corporate leadership -- but the pandemic has sped things up, forcing change now that would have happened in another ten years or so anyway.

2.  American core cities are becoming unsafe and the authorities lack the will to do anything about it.

A few months ago gangs of armed thugs descended on the centers of Lansing MI and Salem OR, in a blatant effort to intimidate state leaders into lifting covid-19-related restrictions.  No serious action was taken to clear away these threatening displays.  The mobs stayed in the city centers, displaying guns like an encampment of occupying barbarians, until they left of their own accord.

Early in June a similar armed gang seized control of several square blocks of Seattle, establishing a so-called "autonomous zone" which persisted for almost a month before being cleared away.  Even after several shootings and "a rape, assault, burglary, arson and property destruction", the authorities fiddle-faddled around, "negotiating" with the thugs instead of moving in to provide the protection the residents of the "zone", like everyone else, pay taxes for.

For months now several cities -- notably my own city of Portland -- have been scenes of mob violence including vandalism, looting, arson, vicious assaults which have required the victims to be hospitalized, and incidents of "protesters" blocking streets pulling guns on peaceful drivers trying to get through.  Mobs have repeatedly attacked police with projectiles capable of causing serious injury.  Police have brutally attacked protesters, including people who clearly were not committing violence.  In some cases police have shot and killed or seriously injured people -- provoking more protests and violence.  In Portland, during a period a few weeks ago, men in unmarked uniforms were abducting people in vans without clear reason, in a clear attempt to spread fear.

In the most recent escalation, a Trump supporter was shot and killed in Portland, apparently by an Antifa fanatic, while a Trumpanzee in Kenosha WI shot three people during a protest, killing two of them.

In effect, we now have rival armed gangs fighting it out in the centers of our cities, with signs of more to come, and no sign of any meaningful action from the authorities to put a stop to it.  I must emphasize that, in relation to the point I am making here, it does not matter who is committing the violence, be it Antifa, pro-Trump militias, "peaceful protesters", infiltrating provocateurs, police, or whoever else.  The point is that as long as this situation continues, no sane person would want to go anywhere near the places where it is happening or might happen -- the city centers.  In the Portland area, several companies have re-opened offices in the suburbs, but will not re-open their downtown offices until they feel conditions are safe.

Again, the point here is not who is committing the violence, nor whether someone believes it to be justified or not.  The point is the decisions that business owners are likely to make, given these circumstances.  How many will judge it not worthwhile to re-open downtown, even after the pandemic is over?

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Small businesses in downtown areas face a double threat.  Not only will the work-from-home trend take away many of their customers, but there is the ever-present threat of being looted and destroyed whenever another police shooting, anywhere in the country, provokes another wave of urban violence.  Don't be surprised if many end up relocating to suburban shopping areas or the mini-downtowns of smaller satellite cities.

People who live in city centers will likely think the same.  Why continue paying sky-high rent if there's no longer any advantage to living close to your job?  Even non-core areas of cities may start losing population.  I've long planned to leave Portland when I retire (which, if all goes well, could be as soon as two years from now).  But I've been doing my job from home perfectly well since March, and the company has signaled a willingness to let me continue doing so, most of the week, after the pandemic is over.  I'm now seriously considering trying to negotiate continuing to work from home all days of the week after the pandemic, so I can relocate then instead of waiting for retirement.  It's a lot easier renting an apartment when you're still on salary rather than on (considerably lower) Social Security.

There will be some advantages to a more dispersed and mobile population.  The elimination of most commuting will reduce pollution and demands for fossil fuel.  Dispersion of people from blue cities to red small towns will help break down the cultural and ideological homogeneity and insularity of the latter.  Mass migration away from expensive areas will create a powerful downward pressure on rents and house prices, making housing in general more affordable.

But cities will have to find new reasons for being and things to offer -- or, perhaps, find themselves on the road to becoming obsolete.