Some observations on Pelosi's announcement
For anyone not familiar with my objections to an impeachment, here's a summary:
(a) Impeachment can't remove Trump from office. Removal would take at least 20 Republican votes in the Senate, which isn't going to happen because Senate Republicans are afraid to anger Trumpanzees whose votes they depend on for re-election.
(b) After "acquittal" by the Senate, Trump would bleat endlessly that he had been exonerated and that all the accusations against him had been exposed as fake news, a dastardly Democratic plot, etc. This would sound plausible to millions of swing voters who don't pay close attention to politics. Thus an impeachment would probably make Trump's re-election more likely.
(c) Impeachment would threaten our House majority. Many House Democrats represent purplish districts in which a vote to impeach would be a definite liability next year. Impeachment is generally unpopular with the voters -- including with many Democrats and independents, not just Republicans.
It's clearly (c) which has loomed largest in Pelosi's resistance to impeachment. She's been accused of doing the politically expedient thing rather than the right thing, but keeping that Senate majority is important. A lot of lives will be ruined or lost if Republicans recover full control of the government. Social Security, Medicare, the environment, and the Devil knows what else would be defenseless against attack. And after seeing the damage Trump and his party have done to our democratic institutions in three years, I'm not convinced they would survive two to four more years of such destruction without even the resistance the House has been able to muster.
Trump long, long ago passed the threshold of behavior meriting removal by impeachment -- but since impeachment can't remove him, we need to focus on the one thing that can, which is the election. An impeachment inquiry will serve that end by helping bring out more information about Trump's activities.
That being said, perhaps the most intriguing development today is that the Senate voted unanimously to support releasing the whistleblower report to the House and Senate intelligence committees -- that is, every Senate Republican voted to let committees which include some Democrats see it. McConnell could have blocked the vote, but did not. It's a hint, at least, that the Republicans' reflexive defense of every Trump atrocity may be weakening.
Why that should be happening now is not clear. It's possible that the whistleblower report is far more alarming and potentially damaging than what we've heard so far would indicate. The whistleblower, through his lawyer, has requested to meet with the House intelligence committee -- and there are hints that his revelations go beyond just Trump's phone call with Zelensky about Biden.
If there's something here so explosive that the Republican Senators' votes which we need to remove Trump might be there after all, then impeachment would become the right move. If Trump were impeached and removed, his party would go into the election with Pence as the incumbent (as unpopular as Trump and without the charisma or cult following), and with the hard-core Trumpanzees in a state of white-hot rage at the party for, as they see it, "betraying" their messiah. We’d win by supermajorities everywhere. It would be the best possible outcome. All the more reason, of course, why the Senate Republicans probably won't go for it.
But it looks like things are about to get interesting, one way or another.
posted by Infidel753 at 5:04 PM
13 Comments:
You make excellent observations
I slept a little bit better last night after the announcement.
Still more sleepless nights yet to come. But maybe fewer nightmares.
I am hoping that this will be something that sticks to the king of teflon.
It takes 67 senators to remove him, though I do think it's rather stupid they did this just for the Joe Biden defense and not everything else the man has done.
Mary: Thanks.
No Thoughts: I hope it works out that way. This could still backfire if they get stampeded into an actual impeachment.
Lady M: So do I. At the moment we don't really have any confirmed details of what the accusations are.
Adam: Yes, that's why I say it would take 20 Republicans (since there are 47 Democrats). I don't think it's about protecting Biden so much as that there is (probably -- we don't know the details yet) something unambiguously illegal and easy for the public to understand. The timing is also significant. The impeachment inquiry process should run until close enough to the election to have an impact, but not so close as to appear too obviously political.
I agree ... great observations.
What's so very, very disturbing is having to live through all this and not being able to do anything. Sure, we can vote, but that opportunity doesn't come until next year. In the meantime, about all we can do is let off our anger in blog posts/comments ... and perhaps letters to our Congresspeople (for all the good that does).
It's enough to drive one batty! (Battier?)
There's this as well that may explain the unanimous vote in the Senate:
GOP Consultant: GOP Sen. Said If Vote Was Secret, 30 Republicans Would Impeach
Let's see what the revelations are and how the Senate Republicans deal with them.
Hey.
with regards to the points against impeaching, C) is the least likely to happen. Trump's support among the independent/middle of the road voters has dropped since 2016, and a lot of them do pay attention and ought to be concerned by the reckless and criminal way trump conducts his White House duties. One of the things noted about impeaching Nixon back in the day was how there wasn't a lot of open support for it until it actually happened, and the investigations that were part of it spelled out just how bad Nixon was until public opinion was totally for it. (don't forget the 1974 midterms affected by Nixon's impeachment and resignation led to a Democratic tidal wave) The same thing *should* happen with trump, who's been more partisan and sloppy about leadership than Nixon ever was.
Nan: That's what comes of living in a representative democracy rather than a direct one. Most of the time it's a good thing, since we don't need to be thinking about politics all the time and can get on with real life. In a case like this, it's frustrating.
But that vote next November, because it's our one chance, will really matter. Let's make it count.
Shaw: I don't doubt that. I'm sure most of them hate his guts -- he's insulted them enough. They're just scared of his followers.
Paul: Thing is, the general public is fully aware that the Senate is drastically unlikely to remove Trump, so an actual impeachment is basically just posturing and political theater. Especially when the economy is slowing down, it's likely to annoy them to see Congress focusing on that instead of on jobs. In any case, I think Pelosi is far better able than most to assess that situation.
I get nauseous just thinking of Pence as the President. You do know he nails Mother and has to use that thought to get him in the mood, right? After all, that’s what Talibangelicals like: power.
XoXo
I respect your thoughtful discussion and I concur that there are political risks for impeachment. Nobody is more risk averse than Democrats. But risk is always a factor in confronting corruption and criminality of those holding the power of high office.
I prefer to think the dire outcomes of a surge for Trump, or lost House seats are far from certain.
If the only goal or purpose for impeachment is the removal of the president, then failure is likely. But that is not the only goal or purpose. It is a political, moral, and Constitutional action. It is a clear and firm accusation of criminal behavior that will stand in the historical account of our time.
It would seem to me "an actual impeachment is basically just posturing and political theater" is the Republican position to marginalize and trivialize the process. Their side is that of the fictional script and emotional performance."Political theater" is projection on the part of the Right.
In fact the impeachment process would be faithfully supporting and defending the Constitution. Dems should repeat that every day. The Right's long winded boasting of supporting the Constitution would be exposed as shallow and hollow as their moral grounding.
I may be trying to be an optimist here, obviously, but it's not delusion.
Why accede to the talking points, anger, and bluster of fanatics? Who cares what they say? They will always will scream "Witch hunt! Deep state! Theater! Exoneration!" So what? A cult is a cult.
I think it unlikely a great mass of moderates would convert to supporting Trump because the cronies of Moscow Mitch's senate refuse to convict. In fact I would see them moving away from him as the inquiry process proceeds and evidence is revealed.
And who knows? Maybe there will be some Republican senators who will see their place in history would be either as accomplices to Trump's crimes, or defenders of the Constitution, law and order, and election integrity.
Today’s polls on impeachment are meaningless.
As Bill Maher points out, Democrats follow the polls and Republicans move the polls. This is the time for Dems to move the polls. They have the law and the Constitution on their side. And they have time.
Sixpence: Pence is a terrible person. But he's not as admired among the fundies as you might think -- many of them despise him as a weakling for caving so quickly to economic pressure to abandon anti-gay legislation in Indiana. And as president he'd inherit a bitterly divided party. He'd be a very bad president but also a very weak one.
Dave: Let me make one thing clear -- I hope you're right. Even more than most of us, I want to see the bastard dragged out of office and humiliated for what he's done. But I'm very, very wary of wishful thinking that's not grounded solidly on facts. The 2016 election seemed like the surest thing we've seen in decades -- and look what happened.
If this does proceed to actual impeachment and Trump actually is removed from office by the Senate, I'll be much happier about being wrong than I've ever been about being right. But I've seen too much of the spineless toadies who make up the Senate Republican caucus to feel optimistic about the outcome. When we're in a situation where the integrity of the republic depends on the honor and fundamental decency of Mitch McConnell, we're in the wrong situation.
It would seem to me "an actual impeachment is basically just posturing and political theater" is the Republican position to marginalize and trivialize the process.
Again, I'm not talking about what I think should happen. I'm talking about what I think will happen. Especially if the economy gets worse, more and more people who aren't Trumpanzees are going to get annoyed that Congress is focusing on anything other than jobs. Trust me, I'm looking for a job right now myself, and it definitely looms much larger in one's mind than politics does.
Trump's behavior long, long ago blasted past any conceivable threshold of deserving impeachment. If the majority of the voters weren't convinced by all that, it's not obvious to me that they'll be convinced by the Ukraine scandal either.
But maybe I'm wrong. We'll see. One thing I do feel confident in saying is that Pelosi, all along, has had far more knowledge about the whole situation than any of her critics, and has far more political skill. If she does think this is the time to move, maybe she knows something the rest of us don't.
One thing is certain. What a twisted time of sordid events it is for us to witness unfolding.
Here's to the winds of change blowing a new course to justice...and to jobs for you, and to House and Senate Dems.
Best of luck to you.
Post a Comment
<< Home