The Swetnick bombshell

By now everyone knows of today's announcement from Michael Avenatti of Julie Swetnick's explosive new accusations against Brett Kavanaugh.  Swetnick's entire declaration is here in easy-to-read form.

Grassley had planned to vote on confirmation this Friday, just a day after Christine Ford's testimony.  It’s hard to imagine that vote going ahead now.  Swetnick’s declaration won’t just evaporate out of everybody’s memory if Kavanaugh is confirmed.  If the Republicans bulldoze him onto the Supreme Court in the face of this, a lot of voters are going to be really mad, and the election is barely over a month away.  If they do go through with it, he might even be removed later if charges are filed.  Involvement in multiple gang rapes is a serious enough crime to be prosecuted even decades later.  If that doesn’t happen, it could serve as grounds for impeaching him off the court.

Swetnick's accusations do raise some questions which will have to be addressed:

- Why did she continue going to these parties if there were gang rapes happening at them?  Why did other women do so?

- If such things were repeatedly happening at parties, wouldn't other people -- somebody -- have spoken out at the time?

- Why didn't earlier background checks on Kavanaugh reveal any hint of such crimes?

These questions will need to be addressed -- indeed, they make up the core of the right-wing internet's reaction to Swetnick's claims.  It seems likely, though, that they can be addressed.  Avenatti is no fool.  He's just accused a powerful judge of participating in a series of violent felonies.  As a lawyer he knows well the consequences of doing that without being able to back it up -- Kavanaugh (and Mark Judge) could sue him into oblivion, and it would mean the end of his ability to practice law and would abort any political ambitions he has.  That is to say, if he's not damned sure of this, he's just committed professional and financial suicide.

But if Kavanaugh is guilty of what Swetnick asserts, then he is equally doomed.  Even being confirmed to the Supreme Court wouldn't save him, if there were enough evidence to prosecute him later.  And there would be -- if those rapes actually happened, there must be multiple victims and witnesses who are still alive.

This is deadly serious.  The outcome will probably sway the results of more than a few House races in November.

My inclination is still to believe the accusers.  There are three of them now, and the more there are, the more credibility each one has.  And as I pointed out in yesterday's post, they have a lot to lose by coming forward.  Even if their claims are vindicated, they will probably face threats and hatred from Trumpanzees for years to come.

The next move is, I suppose, Grassley's.  Please proceed, Senator.