Shutdown shitstorm

As soon as Senate Democrats agreed to a deal to end the shutdown on Monday, a predictable fusillade of attacks erupted from much of the left -- that the Democrats were spineless, had given up the fight too quickly when the public was blaming the Republicans, had betrayed the base and the spirit of the Women's March the day before, etc.  Much of this vitriol was posted so quickly that it was clear the critics had not taken time to learn the details or consider the broader situation.  For some people, "Democrats always cave" is a recorded script they carry around in their heads, to be played whenever any remotely applicable news story pulls the string on their backs.

Recent history doesn't support this view of Democrats in Congress, however.  Recall how they were unanimously reliable votes against ACA repeal, tax "reform", and other proposed atrocities over the last year, forcing the Republicans to rely on entirely on their own narrow majorities, which often splintered and failed due to factionalism and unwillingness to compromise (and public pressure).  We were able to win because our people stood together while the enemy was divided.  In fact, Democrats in Congress have repeatedly stood firm despite the inherent weakness of being in the minority.

In this case, they probably could not have won, and standing fast and dragging out the shutdown would probably have done a lot of political damage with no win to offset it.

First off, public opinion was rapidly shifting against the Democrats' position.  Bloggers kept pointing at that poll showing 48% blaming Republicans for the shutdown vs 28% blaming Democrats, but a new poll released Monday showed the ratio shrinking to 41% to 36%.  This trend would have continued.  Fair or not, the talking point that Democrats were holding military paychecks (and CHIP beneficiaries) hostage for the sake of illegal aliens was a devastatingly effective one.  While a large majority of Americans favor protecting DREAMers, 56% said that doing so was not worth a shutdown.  Neither time nor the public were on our side here.

(Yes, I know the argument that Democrats couldn't be blamed because Republicans control both Houses and the Presidency.  That doesn't work.  Most voters are aware of filibusters and know that a majority short of 60 is not, in fact, full control of the Senate in many situations.  The issue was plainly that Democrats were refusing to let the funding bill pass because they were demanding something not related to it.  And the above-cited poll shows that people were in fact moving towards blaming the Democrats, despite any claim that they couldn't.)

By taking the deal offered, Democrats saved CHIP and gave up nothing except a DACA fix that couldn't have been obtained by prolonging the shutdown anyway.  Now the ball is back in the Republicans' court. The shutdown had put Democrats in the position of having to offend either the political center or the radicals among their own base. They did the smart thing and chose to risk offending the radicals. Now it's the Republicans who are in that position. They can alienate the political center by doing nothing to save DACA and producing an endless stream of news stories about deportations and broken families, or they can pass something and infuriate the knuckle-dragging Trumpanzees.  And the Republican base is far more infested with fanatics who view any compromise as betrayal than ours is.

Democrats are now back to being seen as defenders of DACA, which most voters support, rather than as using a shutdown for leverage, which most voters reject.

I'm glad to see that quite a few liberal blogs and sites have taken a more realistic view:

HuffPost notes that ending the shutdown staved off a turn of public opinion against not only the Democrats but also the DREAMers.

TPM is astonished at those who jump to conclusions and fail to see the bigger picture.

Vox reminds us that Democrats haven't really given up any leverage.

The Mahablog opines that Schumer made the best of a bad situation.

The Carpentariat points out that the fight was moving onto Trump's turf, that it was one Democrats couldn't win, and that recriminations play into the enemy's hands.

As for the other side, this right-wing blogger is convinced that the Republicans caved, while this RedState diarist not only agrees but takes it into Mark of the Beast territory.

Democrats, as a legislative minority, are in a weak position.  They have done much to stymie the Republicans despite that.  But there will be battles that cannot be won.  There will be battles that, being unwinnable, are best avoided entirely since fighting would cause political damage and gain nothing for anybody.  There will be times when compromise is the only possible way to win things which are essential.  If too many Democratic voters decide they cannot tolerate these realities, then in November they will fail to give our Congressional representatives the majorities they need to stand firm and really make it stick, and to start undoing the damage the Republicans are inflicting.  The Republican base's chronic suspicion of its establishment, and inability to recognize the limitations of power, have hobbled and divided our enemies.  The last thing we should do is imitate those things.