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03 October 2024

Israel is winning

Over the last few weeks, the Iranian theocracy and its Hezbollah puppet gang have attempted to escalate and broaden the all-out war against Israel which Hamas launched almost a year ago.  This has, to put it mildly, turned out to be a mistake.

Israel pre-empted Hezbollah's planned attack with a series of brilliant and effective precision moves, notably the exploding-pager attack, culminating with the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, one of jihadism's
most important leaders.  These actions have turned the tide against Hezbollah, which was driven to destruction by its fealty to the Iranian theocracy.  Most of its leaders are now dead and hundreds (at least) of its "army" of would-be butchers and rapists maimed and out of action.  Israel is following up with ground action in Lebanon.  The US supports Israel's operations there -- despite some squid ink about "ultimately pivoting from military operations to a diplomatic pathway" suggesting that the old pre-October-7 thinking still lingers on in Washington.  The American people strongly favor Israel in its fight against jihadism -- something that US politicians obviously understand but need to take to heart even more.

Faced with the neutering of its proxies in Lebanon, this week the theocracy itself launched a large-scale ballistic-missile attack on Israel.  Unlike the April drone attack, this onslaught was "for real", a desperate attempt to reverse the tide of Israeli victories.  Nevertheless, the attack was a fiasco.  Israel shot down almost all the missiles, with help from the US as well as France and Jordan.  Israeli installations suffered some damage, but only one person (a Palestinian in the West Bank) was killed.  Israel is now contemplating how to respond, and has many options.  Its leaders have doubtless noted the effectiveness of Ukraine's long-range strikes on the Russian heartland, and are likely considering comparable targets in Iran.

Netanyahu has made it clear he understands that the theocracy is the oppressor and enemy of the Iranian people and nation.  He's unlikely to risk major civilian casualties there, knowing that after the theocracy is gone, Iran could well even become a valuable ally.

Appeasers and defeatists have long lectured us that jihadism cannot be crushed by force and that any military efforts, with their unavoidable civilian casualties, merely "create more terrorists".  By this argument, military force could not have eliminated the Nazi regime and ideology in Germany, or the military junta and its fanatics in Japan -- both far more powerful enemies in their prime than jihadism today.  It is truly incredible that serious people listen to such nonsense.

I have never been a fan of Netanyahu personally, but it's now clear that his bold and forceful handling of this war has been the correct course.  By pursuing military victory and ignoring US hand-wringing, he has exposed the failure of the old ways of thinking and shown that genuine victory is achievable.  And the Israeli people well remember the lessons of history.

Appeasers talk about "ending" wars, realists talk about winning them.

12 comments:

  1. I am no fan of Bibi either, but as far as I'm concerned, Israel has had every right to fight back, especially in the aftermath of October 7, 2023. And it still boggles the mind to see some in the West try to _defend_ Iran's attack on Israel--either via the drone and missile attacks or through their proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. In fact, I just saw an article where the author actually put down that it was Israel who "dragged Iran into this war"--completely ignoring that Iran was already involved in the war via its proxies.

    It's still amazing to me to see that in Lebanon and other areas of the Middle East there are celebrations in regards to Nasrallah's death while in the West there are people upset about it (well, considering the anti-Israel sentiments of some Westerners, I should not be amazed at all).

    I think one of the main reasons why there has been a deluge of articles complaining about Israel striking back at Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran is because the writers' own hatred of Israel led them to defend the atrocities of Oct. 7 and they expected Israel to just roll over and do nothing. I suppose they never watched Spielberg's MUNICH.

    Do I have some issues with Bibi's views and Israel's actions? Yes. But I also firmly believe that Israel has the right to exist and they have the right to defend themselves. They are surrounded on all sides by hostile nations, and let's be blunt--Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran have all made statements calling for Israel's destruction. What angers me even more is seeing Westerners, particularly Leftists who claim to be "for peace", fall all over themselves to call for Israel to be humiliated or worse yet, to be wiped out while praising theocratic countries (like Iran) and organizations (like Hamas and Hezbollah) all because they have a mutual hatred of Israel.

    One more thing--it is also good to see the US still allied with Israel. Granted, there are those who will be upset at Biden and Harris for not wanting to place an arms embargo, but both of them have made it clear that despite their differences with Bibi they are in complete support of Israel. And if that pisses off the anti-Israel crowd who have chosen to wallow in the muck of antisemitism, then so much the better.

    Whew! Went on another mini-rant again!

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  2. Any of them going against Israel is a mistake and in time they are going to see that they shouldn't have started something they cannot hope to win.

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  3. Marc: The apologists for jihadist attacks on Israel are, deep down, part of the tradition of Jew-hatred that has infected the West (and the Middle East) for centuries. Their instinct is always to side with and justify the oppressor.

    When Hitler invaded Poland in 1939, he claimed Poland had attacked Germany first, and even faked some evidence to that effect. I suppose a few useful-idiot types at the time might have even believed it.

    It is especially bizarre to see groups like "Queers for Palestine" supporting regimes and organizations which would actually kill them if they could, or the women in these movements supporting those who would repress them far worse than most of the right wing here would.

    It's true that the US has sometimes foot-dragged on supplying certain weapons to Israel and Ukraine, and has sometimes tried to dictate what strategies both countries can pursue, but in general our support has been solid.

    One point -- it's not the case any more that Israel is surrounded entirely by hostile countries. Egypt has generally abided by the terms of its peace with Israel, and Jordan helped shoot down some of the incoming Iranian missiles in the latest attack. I'm sure there are still people in both countries that aren't friendly to Israel, but by and large they seem to have moved on and accepted it as a permanent presence.

    Ricko: Thanks.

    Mary K: It's a bit of an adjustment for them. In the Middle East, as in the West, Jews were traditionally a powerless group that could be pushed around and not fight back, or at least not effectively. Dealing with a Jewish state that's more powerful than they are is rather a novelty.

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  4. Israel is kicking the 💩 out of Hezbollah 😂 The IDF is two or three steps ahead every time

    Note to Jake Sullivan and Joe Biden, the Israelis obliterated Russia’s largest airbase in the Middle East and they didn’t do a thing about it. Red lines are all bullshit, let Ukraine WIN

    Superiority of Western weaponry is being made obvious -especially air defense-, what we often lack is the will

    Iran is going to be increasingly afraid of escalation now because they can see they’re going to get their asses kicked, and that will probably be the end of that regime. Might not be able to send so much weaponry to Moscow either

    I thought there was a good chance for change with the Tehran women’s protest a couple years ago, but perhaps we in the West didn’t do enough to support it

    I think 80% of the population would be glad to read themselves of this vile theocracy

    We of NATO need a grand strategy. These wars are all connected- with the Kremlin stirring the pot, and China acquiescing/enabling

    We should be glad they weren’t really ready to move on Taiwan, otherwise they might take advantage of this moment. Especially if their are economy tanked

    What Israel destroyed at the Russian airbase was Iranian -and perhaps Russian- weapons headed to Hezbollah, what more evidence do we need

    I know President Harris is a person who is intellectually flexible, and response to reason

    I’m hoping for a more forward thinking and integrated foreign policy in the coming term

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    1. It's beginning to look like only democracies can really do technology right. Gangster states foster corruption, which fosters neglect of maintenance, which spells doom for the effectiveness of sophisticated equipment. And the smartest people, who invent the best things, work best in free societies. The same thing explains why all the technological innovation in the US happens in California and Massachusetts and Washington and not in Alabama and Mississippi.

      I had not heard about Israel destroying a Russian airbase. Do you have a link for that?

      When the Iranian theocracy falls, I'm sure most Iranians will celebrate. Imposing religion by force eventually makes people hate it. The same will happen eventually in Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan and the rest of those miserable puritanical states.

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  5. I’m getting an error message)

    I don’t think I can post any links here, I recall trying before

    Israel struck Russia's Hmeimim Air Base on the coast of west Syria near Jableh. Both Syrian and Russian air defenses were active but failed to intercept the strikes.

    There were S400s there, they didn’t work

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  6. Couldn’t agree more with this first paragraph, it’s like Trump, the Russians value loyalty over competence , and the best people have no stomach for that, take their talents elsewhere if they can

    Seems like the Chinese have corralled their talent a bit more effectively

    Perhaps ‘obliterated’ was too strong a term, but the Israelis really did a number on that Russian base in Syria

    Reaganite independent

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  7. Trying again

    https://x.com/realwarmonitor/status/1841736757345218893?s=46&t=KdzsCjrtPLE9-ZEQ7SjfhQ

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  8. Thanks for the link, it works. That does seem like a pretty devastating contrast to the effectiveness of Israel's own air defenses against the Iranian attack.

    For that matter, drones from Ukraine apparently can fly hundreds of miles into Russia without being spotted.

    See here on Chinese civil-engineering standards. I don't think even Russia is this bad. What I've heard about Chinese weapons isn't much more impressive.

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  9. I don’t think the Russians are going to be selling many S400 systems for export anymore 😂

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