03 November 2012

The fury of wingnuts scorned

I'm becoming more convinced than ever that Tuesday and Wednesday will bring the biggest meltdown since Fukushima.  Losing an election is usually disappointing, sometimes maddening -- but with modern polling, very often the side that loses at least had some awareness that defeat was coming.  This time, based on what I'm seeing on the right-wing sites I read semi-regularly (Hot Air, RedState, and Race42012), there is almost no such awareness in advance.  Republicans seem convinced that they're going to win.

How sure am I that they're wrong?  Well, nothing is certain, but most of the polls show Obama ahead in most of the swing states.  As of this morning Nate Silver puts Obama's chance of winning at 83.7%.  Polls of the Senate races suggest that our majority will actually increase.  Yes, defeat is still possible, but a lot of very surprising things would have to happen to bring it about.

But the right-wingers don't see it that way.  They think the polls are all wrong because high levels of Democratic party ID reveal some nefarious "skewing".  They think there's still a huge enthusiasm gap in their favor.  They point to Romney's lead among independents.  They think voters will turn against Obama because he mishandled the Benghazi attack (most of the alleged mishandling has been debunked, but that doesn't penetrate the sealed Drudge / Fox / Limbaugh / etc. fake-media bubble).  They think the public is finally realizing that Obama is Muslim, communist, stupid, anti-American, gay, Kenyan, or some combination of those.

In fact, if the actual result deviates from the consensus of polls, it's more likely to be in our favor.  A lot of polls don't include cell phones, and people who have only cell phones and no land lines are disproportionately young, black, and Hispanic -- groups that lean strongly Democratic.  There's evidence that polls systematically under-sample Hispanics in the Southwest, thus under-estimating Democratic support (Reid won his 2010 Nevada race by six points when polls showed him losing) -- so our party should do better than expected in Nevada and Colorado, and even Arizona may bring some surprises.  There could be an Obama / Senate landslide (in fact, with polls showing Florida back in play, an Obama Electoral-College landslide is possible even without those factors).

I've seen quite a few right-wingers salivating in anticipation of visiting liberal blogs and sites on November 7th to gloat.  They expect to see Nate Silver, most pollsters, and all the other actual experts who are predicting a Democratic win, become utterly discredited and disappear -- vindicating the wingnut fake alternate reality which they and their "media" have cobbled together around themselves.

They're in for a terrible, harsh, cold shock, and many of them aren't going to take it well.  Some of them are going to be enraged.  Some will be looking for someone or something to vent their fury at.

On Wednesday, watch your back.


Blogger Norbrook said...

I've already seen some "preemptive excuses" from some of the more ... realistic ... conservatives, along with a list of "this is what they'll say."

I hang out on the "anti-birther" blogs, and I get to see a wide selection of calls for military coups, militias, "citizens grand juries," and a bunch of other racist yahoos making threats. I'm sure that the meltdown amongst that group will be something to see.

03 November, 2012 07:32  
Blogger Shaw Kenawe said...

Oh yes. I've seen this magical thinking on the rightwing blogs I visit as well.

And yes, we need to brace ourselves for charges of election fraud, tampering, stealing, etc., because the GOPers chose to run a soulless liar for president.

When you've got the CEOs of two of America's very large corporations calling Romney out as a liar, it doesn't bode well. But the GOPers are blind to all of this evidence. They've had years of Rovian dirty tricks, afterall, to keep them comfortable in their political bubble.

If we think we saw havoc and destruction from Sandy, wait till we see the rightwing blogsphere on Wednesday morning!


(I Believe Nate)

03 November, 2012 07:46  
Blogger Murr Brewster said...

On Tuesday, watch your election officials.

04 November, 2012 00:28  
Anonymous pluky said...

I'm thinking "dochschloss" will regain some currency.

04 November, 2012 06:14  
Anonymous Cthulhu said...

I fully expect another Bush/Gore 2000 fight. The Rethugs are in full throated denile, esp. in light of ignoring anything and anyone to do with the Bush administration during the campaign, and the convention.

They're going to fight to regain power. And we're going to have to stand up and fight back.

04 November, 2012 07:06  
Anonymous LCForevah said...

How many remember KellyAnne Conway from the 2008 elections? She was always on Fox. She was a wingnut with her own polling/consultation company whose questions and thus results were so skewed, she had McCain as the winner till he wasn't! The right has made her disappear, and has not provided an equivalent for this election. I guess they can't find a statistician foolish enough to use fantasy numbers in order to make the base feel good about themselves.

Their only recourse is to come after Silver. BTW, Conway is a consultant for Todd Akin's campaign! It must be hell.

04 November, 2012 08:32  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

Norbrook: I'm looking forward to seeing it, hopefully from a safe distance.

SK: No doubt those auto companies are secretly Marxist (and Kenyan). Anything to keep the bubble intact a while longer.

MB: A lot of people will be watching them.

Pluky: Considering that the Dolchsto├člegende helped facilitate the rise of the Nazis, I hope not.

04 November, 2012 09:03  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

Cthulhu: It's mainly to avoid another Gush-vs.-Bore-like fiasco that I really hope Obama's victory margin is large in both the popular vote and the electoral college.

Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'omney wgah'nagl fhtagn.....

LCForevah: Never heard of Conway. Maybe after being linked to another big fiasco (Akin) she can legitimately retire.

04 November, 2012 09:09  
Blogger Unknown said...

Mostly, I don't blame the conservatives for claiming that they are going to win. This is what people always say. Yes, there are freaks; ladies and gentleman: Dean Chambers!

But the idea that the independents are going to break hard for Romney is just nonsense. For the record (And in readable form!) I offer another attempt to stop this foolishness:

Undecideds Unlikely to Affect Presidential Race

But it isn't like I am better than these people. (Just smarter!) Because I too am salivating at the thought of checking out Unskewed Polls after an Obama victory. And I'm very much hoping that I can level another full tilt attack on Bill Maher's ridiculous false equivalence regarding Goldie Taylor.

And if I'm wrong, I'll be very depressed for much more important reasons.

04 November, 2012 16:12  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

FM: Thanks for the links. I don't deny I'm looking forward to the entertaining aspects of the wingnut meltdown after the Republican defeat on Tuesday -- and with all their talk of gloating over our losses (that they expect), frankly I won't feel any guilt about it.

04 November, 2012 17:30  
Anonymous tim said...

nice discuss

24 November, 2012 08:48  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ha! Don't expect 2016 to be the year of the libertarian.

14 December, 2012 21:06  

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