A job worth getting done
That's the only thing that matters -- whether the Iranians can get rid of this regime or not. I don't care at all about the US domestic political aspects of this and have hardly bothered even reading about them. That's why I've mostly been relying on news sources based in the Middle East itself, which focus on the situation on the ground over there instead of blathering on about what Trump says or what people are saying about him.
Trump is certainly not the person whom I would have chosen to supervise the US part of the campaign, but our military below the Hegseth level is still performing superbly as it has traditionally done. And -- fortunately, from a political standpoint -- it still seems to be Israel that is acting as the senior partner. I know a lot of people don't like Netanyahu (I'm not a fan, really), but he does have a track record of getting things done, and is certainly far more competent than Trump at choosing the right means to accomplish a goal and sticking with his plans until they reach fruition. And he's been talking for years about the huge gulf between the Iranian people and the regime, and how Iran is a potential ally to Israel and the West once the theocracy is gone. The Israelis understand Iran. They can't afford not to.
Israel cannot, and the US will not, actually conquer and occupy a country two and a half times the size of Texas with a population of over ninety million. The goal is to do so much damage to the apparatus of repression that the Iranian people themselves can overthrow the theocracy. They showed in January that they were willing to fight for freedom. The Israeli-US role is to create the conditions for them to succeed.
There are signs that the theocracy is running scared. Since the campaign began, it has carried out a new wave of mass arrests and escalated its threats against the people. Here is the abuse meted out to two nurses whose only crime was to have treated wounded protesters, as part of their regular jobs at a hospital, during the regime's mass murder of protesters in January. The regime's thugs had specifically ordered hospital staff not to help wounded people. It has always been well known that rape and torture of detainees is part of the theocracy's standard treatment of dissidents. This is part of what will just go on and on with no end in sight, if the regime is not overthrown.
But the campaign is having its effects. In addition to the growing disruption of the regime's communications which I linked earlier, the banking system is increasingly unable to function. Israeli drones are destroying the checkpoints which the Basij (regime militia) uses to control the cities. Iranians are still managing to communicate with each other and the outside world, to a limited extent, despite the regime's efforts to prevent it. According to Israeli intelligence, the theocracy is only just beginning to realize how badly its capabilities have been damaged -- and the military campaign will continue for at least several more weeks.
"Top security official" Ali Lārijāni is calling upon other Islamic states, which the theocracy has been in conflict with for years, to rally to its side in the name of Islamic unity. Good luck with that. The Arab states of the Gulf are at the forefront of pressing the US not to falter until the threat posed by the theocracy is neutralized.
[Update: One hour after I posted this, it came out that Israel has killed the head of the Basij and
Bizarrely, the theocracy is threatening to attack Ukraine on the grounds that it is providing drone technology to help defend countries Iran is firing missiles at. I've seen no sign that it is actually attacking Ukraine or can spare the weapons to do so.
Perhaps even more bizarrely, there's a report that US intelligence has some evidence that Mojtabā Khāmenei, the new supreme leader, is gay. This would be a startling case of hypocrisy for a regime which not only imposes, but actually carries out, the death penalty for homosexuality.
We will soon be hearing -- have already been hearing -- from the most twisted and ugly and morally depraved elements within the US. The types who view this conflict as just one more opportunity for petty domestic political point-scoring. The ones who would happily leave the theocracy in power in Iran, at a staggering cost in human suffering, if they fear its fall might be perceived as a "win" for Trump. The vile Israel-haters of the far left and far right have already oozed forth with their Der Stürmer conspiratardia about evil Jewish manipulation of the US. Don't listen to them. This is a job worth getting done.


12 Comments:
Another great update. Thank you!
It’s good to read your more “insider” views. I have little faith in one corrupt government overthrowing another, but I hope the vile theocracy ends.
I do not understand the antisemitism and the cheering for America to fail simply to not give the opposing political party a "win". That is a twisted way of thinking and a complete lack on awareness of the evils of the Iranian regime perpetrated over nearly 50 years. The ignorance and unwitting support for such an evil theocratic regime by some Americans is disgusting. I pray that the Iranian people stand up and finish the job to remove the theocracy and to govern themselves.
"Mojtabā Khāmenei, the new supreme leader, is gay."
Well, bugger me! Isn't he dead? Which I guess would mean in no meaningful way is he gay in any sense of the word.
I hope someone in Tel Aviv sets-up a gay bar called, Mojtadas. On the seafront. I'd love to sip a cocktail there - an F-35. Well one day!
But Hell's Teeth Infidel, thanks! That is the most left-field thing I have heard for ages. Even if it came from The Mossad Joke Factory.
NickM.
PS. Having trouble commenting as anything other than anon.
Bijoux: Thanks -- Glad to be informative.
Anvil: Unfortunately we rarely have the luxury of ideal people or institutions, even to accomplish good ends. In this case I care about the results, not about the moral standing of a politician who played a role in achieving them.
Darrell: It's the result of how toxic and polarized politics has become. Scoring points over the other "team" has become more important than actually getting positive goals accomplished. Most Americans know very little about Iran, so they view this situation entirely through the lens of US politics -- thus their reactions to it are irrelevant.
NickM: He may be dead, or severely injured. There are various stories. If he's dead, you can mentally amend the post to say "was gay". If its true (and the link includes some of the purported evidence), the point is that for decades the son of the supreme leader was able to get away with something for which an ordinary Iranian would be hanged.
Well, hopefully the Iranian people will see this as a chance to change things for themselves for the better. We will see.
Thank you for the interesting read.
For me, I'm actually getting very anxious about how this war is proceeding. From what I've read, the inner members of the WH Trump team are trying to provide an off-ramp for the President to gracefully exit the war quickly. His erractic, petulant, spiteful and unpredictable behaviour (esp. now he doesn't have allied support) could actually make things worse. It's hard to gauge what is bullshit and what is real with Trump, but I think he must (surely!) understand the Iran risk is just way too important for a "quick" solution. Unfortunately, MAGA are very isolationist. Isolationism has a long-standing pedigree on the right, and it's usually ahistorical being ostensibly based on the founding philosophy of the US (not true), but it's always accompanied by an obsession with Israel and stupid conspiracy theories (e.g. US foreign policy caused 9/11). A Classic case would be Dave Smith who gets really enormous attention online. So that's a real problem for Trump as he's always extremely sensitive to criticism.
Probably the worst outcome Trump could do is a hasty and ill-thought out "deal". We have to get to the end line by keep cutting down this regime. No half measures. The war, so far, is actually going well, in terms of arresting the Iranian state and Iranian power. We have to keep going , inspite of anxieties of the stock market and oil prices and international "condemnation" and everything else.
Mary: We will see. It will be a while yet before the system is broken down enough by airstrikes to give them the opportunity.
Liam: There is that risk, and Trump constantly changes what he says (dementia), but he is also getting advice from the military who have a more realistic view, and Israel understands what's at stake. In any case, my focus here is on what's happening on the ground in the Middle East, not on the US domestic politics side of things.
I know next to nothing about Iran except for its brutal regime that has oppressed Iranians for many years. I hope this current conflict results in a more democratic society but I'm not holding my breath.
Nick: Well, that puts you ahead of most Americans, who either don't know they don't know, or think it doesn't matter that they don't know.
Thank you for the update.
It's what I do.
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