05 June 2024

Good news from other lands

The US national election is still almost half a year away, but two other major democracies have just now wrapped up theirs.  The results are encouraging.

o o o o o

Mexico:  Much is being made of the fact that our southern neighbor and largest trading partner (yes, it is) has just elected its first woman president.  But Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo will be an unusual national leader in several other ways.

To begin with, though her family is of Jewish origin and she identifies with Jewish culture, she is non-religious and states that she grew up without religion.  It's still hard to imagine an openly non-religious person being elected president here in the US, but it didn't seem to be a major issue in Mexico, which the media here still insist on describing as "overwhelmingly Catholic", although like most countries today it is actually rapidly becoming more secular.

Sheinbaum strongly supports abortion rights, gay rights, and same-sex marriage, views which are widely accepted in Mexico today, although she has avoided endorsing trans ideology, which in Latin America is rejected even by much of the left.  She opposes the blind cult of the free market and favors a strong welfare state to combat poverty.

Perhaps most important, her background is in science and engineering, with an emphasis on energy and climate change.  Most politicians come from the legal profession, which foments a mentality that word-games can shape reality.  We need more leaders from science and engineering, who understand that physical reality is "hard" and immutable and needs to be understood and dealt with the way it really is.

Our own religio-wingnuts are not happy about her.  Check out the comments on that article too -- you'll be startled at the blatant anti-Semitism (it's a hard-line Catholic site).

o o o o o

India:  Six hundred and forty-two million votes were cast in the world's most populous country.  When the counting was done, the result was a serious and unexpected defeat for prime minister Modi and his religio-nationalist party, the BJP.  Modi has been in power since 2014 and has taken India some ways down the road of Hindu supremacy and of marginalization and even persecution of religious minorities (of which Muslims are the largest, though India also has Sikhs, Christians, and many other small religious groups).

Democracy, however, remains vigorous, as this election showed.  Voting is done over a six-week period, region by region, with voting machines transported from place to place so that every voter gets the chance to use one.  Every tiniest offshore island and remote village is visited, and the elderly and disabled are able to vote at home.

The BJP won just 240 seats out of the total of 543 in the Lok Sabha (the lower house of Parliament) -- far short of a majority, even though it remains the largest single party.  Modi will almost certainly remain prime minister, but will have to form a coalition government with other parties to do so, and his mandate will be far weaker.  As one political commentator observed, "He made this election about himself.  Today, he is just another politician, cut to size by the people."

One can hope that this result is the start of a real repudiation of Modi's religio-nationalist ideology.  India's huge and youthful population, its open society, and its rapid economic growth and development, make it likely to become a leading global power in the future.  The world needs it to remain a secular democracy.

11 Comments:

Blogger Infidel753 said...

Please respect the fact that this post is about the elections in Mexico and India. For those who want to talk about US politics, there are plenty of other places out there to do so.

05 June, 2024 01:22  
Blogger NickM said...

I suspect in India Modi has just run out of juice. It happens. It happened here to Thatcher/Major, It happened to Blair/Brown and it's a happening to the current Tories now... I mean ten years is quite a long time. Significant as the Indian and Mexican elections are I think the South Africaan result is even bigger news. The ANC had set itself up as The Natural Party of Government. That is never a good thing and it has now been dethroned after 30!!! years. That is excellent.

But back to Mexico, via Ireland and Spain. Yes, all three have been traditionally very Catholic. But, certainly in Ireland and Spain when that goes it goes catastrophically*. Perhaps that has happened in Mexico. Maybe in India as well because a lot of Indians see their nation's destiny is to be a super-power and Hindu Nationalism seems a bit... parochial?

*I mean that in the mathematical sense of a sudden discontinuous change. Imagine an elastic band. it obeys Hooke's Law as you stretch it. Until it snaps.

05 June, 2024 03:31  
Blogger Bohemian said...

Well, seems Mexico and India's populations chose well and one can only Hope that all Elections Globally end up with choices as beneficial to not only their Nations, but, Globally as well.

05 June, 2024 06:29  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sheinbaum will be great for Mexico, she realizes the most important work of the Mexican government is to start to care for the people again, something not really done since Lazaro Cardenas.
Modi finally has been put in check by the people of India. India needs to get itself in order and solve its problems in a tactful way, a coalition government should help. Mexico and India have so much promise. Now if only similar results could happen in Turkey, Hungary, Serbia, Brazil and Britain, and one day in Russia, the world would be a better place.:) -Rj

05 June, 2024 09:52  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

NickM: In a way I hope Modi did "run out of juice", because that sounds like the kind of thing you don't bounce back from. I know he's actually done some good for the country on a practical level, but religio-nationalist ideology is dangerous.

I had not really been aware of the election in South Africa, and I actually wouldn't put it on the same level simply because South Africa is a far less globally significant country than India or Mexico. At any rate, I'll be waiting to see whether a change of government means a real repudiation of the country's pro-Putin, anti-Israel orientation. If it does, that will be more meaningful, since it's at least an influential country within sub-Saharan Africa, which has a lot of votes in the UN if nothing else.

In Ireland the child-molestation scandals played a major role in the collapse of the Catholic Church's dominance, and I think that was true to some extent in Spain as well. As to Mexico, I don't know. I do know the country has had an anti-clericalist streak going back to the 1910-1920 revolution. I'm not all that knowledgeable about it, unfortunately. But I do know that educational levels and the standard of living have been rising substantially in recent decades, and those things always portend a weakening of religion.

I would hope that people in India realize what an embarrassment and what an atavistic throwback Hindu nationalism is.

Bohemian: I would hope so too. Now, if only people in Russia and China could vote meaningfully at all.

Rj: Certainly taking care of the people is an important responsibility of any government. I would argue that Brazil, at least, took an important step in the right direction by repudiating Bolsonaro.

05 June, 2024 18:45  
Anonymous Reaganite Independent said...

I have to say I was shocked by both South Africa and India, I thought the previous powers that be had it pretty dialed in

Sure didn’t expect such free & fair elections, nor the results.

Fine with me, both of them were too friendly with the Russians anyway

The United States certainly is no longer the Gold standard tho- not at this time

05 June, 2024 22:11  
Blogger NickM said...

I think you underate SA. It has great influence in Africa, obviously but it goes beyond that and is seen by many as a leader amongst developing nations in general. A lot of this is post-apartheid goodwill which has not been entirely squandered. It also has the potential to be very wealthy as long as they don't mess it up as they have been doing...

I hope you are right about India. For a nuclear-armed nation with a space program to go backwards like that is an embarrassment. It is possibly why India has a brain-drain - look at the number of Indian Silicon Valley CEOs. If that is reversed it'll give the Politburo in Beijing a serious pause for thought.

06 June, 2024 02:20  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

Reaganite: India certainly isn't an ideal democracy, but these days they're doing far, far better than the US is. The best illustration of that is the determination to make sure everyone can vote, as opposed to the efforts by half the state governments in this country to make it harder to vote. And they have no equivalent of our idiotic Electoral College. Bad people may win elections, but at least the winner actually wins.

Modi is rather in the mold of Bolsonaro, Orbán, Erdogan, Trump, etc. Like them, he has been unable to undermine democracy as much as he doubtless wishes. It's unfortunate that he will probably remain prime minister, but one can hope coalition partners will rein him in. And apparently Indians recognize the danger of charismatic leaders.

NickM: South Africa "is seen by many as a leader amongst developing nations in general"

Thus illustrating that "many" are idiots. South Africa is a total failure on every level. It inherited a developed, if grossly unequal, economy from the apartheid regime and has spent the last thirty years collapsing toward the level of the standard African rat hole. They can barely keep the electricity working any more. Crime, corruption, and economic inequality are all worse than ever. Nigeria has done better and is more plausible as a leading country for sub-Saharan Africa. Several other countries in that region are doing democracy better -- Botswana comes to mind. Mandela's putting an end to apartheid without a civil war was an incredible achievement, but South Africa hasn't accomplished one damn thing worthwhile since then. There's probably no country on this planet less qualified to "lead" anything, unless it's Zimbabwe or Turkmenistan.

It also has the potential to be very wealthy as long as they don't mess it up

That horse left the barn, died, and rotted away a long time ago. Anybody in South Africa with any sense is just trying to get out before the whole place completely implodes.

Smart Indians know that the worst is possible. Russia was and is a nuclear-armed nation with a space program, and it did go backwards into authoritarian religio-nationalism under Putin, and now they're struggling to stave off defeat in an attempted invasion of a country that used to be considered a Marx Brothers Freedonia-level joke, they can't protect the deep interior of their territory against drone attacks, and they've lost a naval war against an opponent that doesn't even have a navy. Modi may think that's worth cozying up to and even emulating, but I assume not many perceptive people in India aspire to such a future. In the meantime, we'll gladly take as many tech-savvy people from there as want to come here.

06 June, 2024 05:06  
Anonymous Reaganite Independent said...

The result in India proves the residual strength of their democracy, without a doubt. Refreshing to see

Kind of like how 2020 did in the USA -under great pressure-, I guess we’ll see how this one goes

06 June, 2024 13:11  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

I think that, in general, institutions which have been around and stable for a few generations are a lot more resilient than people give them credit for. India has been a democracy for three-quarters of a century now. It's long past the point of being a mere novelty or experiment.

06 June, 2024 23:59  
Blogger NickM said...

Interesting point. I would add that India has always been a Democracy since it was a unified, independent state. This matters because there is no precedent for tyranny/despotism/military rule etc...

I would also add that institutions matter more than governments. If people believe that the institutions of the state such as a constitution or democracy or a free press or the rule of law or whatever are more imporrtant than whoever is currently in power than that is a very good thing.

08 June, 2024 08:20  

Post a Comment

<< Home