The French election

My recent post on Brexit ended with the following observation:

Change is coming in Europe -- the question is whether the moderate political establishment will accommodate it or be swept away by it.  If that establishment continues to ignore the popular will on issues like austerity, immigration, and interference with national sovereignty, eventually Europe's exasperated voters will start electing people like Nigel Farage (who, though he deserves much kudos for leading the independence movement to victory, is basically a crank otherwise), or worse, to positions of national leadership.  This would pose some of the same kinds of dangers as the rise of Trump in the US.  By accommodating change despite their personal misgivings, Cameron and May have greatly reduced this risk, at least in the UK.  Other countries will soon face similar tests.

This Sunday, France will face that test, as it holds its Presidential election.  In the French system, if no one candidate wins an absolute majority in this first round of voting, a run-off is held between just the top two vote-getters (a wise system, I might add, since it filters out the effect of voters wasting their votes on minor candidates).  The most controversial candidate, who is very likely to be one of the top two and thus make it to the run-off, is Marine Le Pen of the National Front.

The National Front was founded by Marine's father Jean-Marie Le Pen, during whose leadership it genuinely deserved the epithet "far-right" which is so casually (and often inaccurately) bestowed on all European political elements which oppose the European Union and high immigration.  Since Marine took over in 2011, the party has moderated, abandoning its former doctrinaire-Catholic and anti-Semitic stances to focus on issues which actually appeal to the average French voter, such as limiting immigration, abandoning the euro common currency, and generally re-asserting national sovereignty.  It has thus established itself as a major and serious political force.

Earlier in Marine Le Pen's career I hoped that she would indeed be elected President someday, but I can no longer do so.  Her recent alignment with Putin and support for Trump shows a dangerous lack of commitment to democracy and Western values, while her call to reverse the legalization of gay marriage (in one of the world's most secular and tolerant nations) is reactionary and, ironically, aligns her with the Islamists who are the main remaining anti-gay political force in western Europe.  Like Nigel Farage in Britain, she is right on her signature issues, but dangerously wrong in other areas.

According to polls, the other candidate most likely to make it to the run-off is Emmanuel Macron, a man without prior political experience who describes himself as "neither right nor left", though his support comes primarily from the left.  He's also the most pro-EU candidate.  Two others with a chance to reach the run-off against Le Pen are François Fillon, offering a standard right-wing program of tax cuts, longer working hours, and reduction of government; and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whose platform mixes strongly-progressive economic and environmental policies with nationalist elements such as asserting French independence and strong criticism of the EU (hardly a surprising combination, since the EU's disastrous austerity policies should arouse the opposition of any true socialist).  Polling strongly suggests that whichever one of these three makes it to the run-off against Le Pen will defeat her and become President.

If I were French, the choice would be easy -- Mélenchon.  But from an objective viewpoint, who ultimately wins may matter less than how well Le Pen does.

In Britain, Farage never got close to becoming Prime Minister, but the movement he led ultimately forced the issue.  David Cameron was a mainstream, pro-EU politician, but when he ran for re-election in 2015, he promised a referendum on the EU; and after winning, he kept his promise.  The British people thus got the benefit of Farage's activism without the dangers of having Farage as national leader.  The best outcome for the French would be the same.  So the best outcome of Sunday's vote, and of the near-inevitable run-off on May 7, would be for Le Pen to do as well as possible without actually winning.  The more strongly popular discontent expresses itself, the more likely it is that the winner will feel forced to address it, as Cameron did.

Mélenchon is fourth in the polls, but has been rising steadily since mid-March.  Fillon, who most resembles a US Republican (though without the religious wingnuttery) is third, but has been damaged by a nepotism scandal.  Macron is the most likely winner, but even he might be swayed to consider a "Frexit" referendum if the popular will asserts itself forcefully enough.

One point Americans might appreciate -- France has no equivalent of the Electoral College to muddy the waters.