The pattern is historically consistent. When turnout is low, Republicans win. When it's high, we win. And it tends to be low on election dates where the Presidency is not on the ballot -- such as 2014. GOTV may well decide everything.
In a sense, FL-13 was encouraging despite being a defeat. Such extremely low turnout should have strongly favored the Republican, yet Sink lost by a very narrow margin. This implies that even a modest gain in turnout could sway the results in November. As Kilgore says, it's going to be difficult. But we know what we need to focus on. PM Carpenter has some suggestions.