FL-13
Ed Kilgore has a bunch of data about the Florida special-election defeat, but the critical numbers are in his second paragraph. Voter turnout was abysmal. It was down 46% compared with 2012, and even down 21% compared with 2010, itself a very low-turnout election.
The pattern is historically consistent. When turnout is low, Republicans win. When it's high, we win. And it tends to be low on election dates where the Presidency is not on the ballot -- such as 2014. GOTV may well decide everything.
In a sense, FL-13 was encouraging despite being a defeat. Such extremely low turnout should have strongly favored the Republican, yet Sink lost by a very narrow margin. This implies that even a modest gain in turnout could sway the results in November. As Kilgore says, it's going to be difficult. But we know what we need to focus on. PM Carpenter has some suggestions.
The pattern is historically consistent. When turnout is low, Republicans win. When it's high, we win. And it tends to be low on election dates where the Presidency is not on the ballot -- such as 2014. GOTV may well decide everything.
In a sense, FL-13 was encouraging despite being a defeat. Such extremely low turnout should have strongly favored the Republican, yet Sink lost by a very narrow margin. This implies that even a modest gain in turnout could sway the results in November. As Kilgore says, it's going to be difficult. But we know what we need to focus on. PM Carpenter has some suggestions.
posted by Infidel753 at 4:20 AM
2 Comments:
From what I read, Alex Sink wasn't a particularly energizing candidate, which may explain in part the lack of voter enthusiasm for her.
Tommykey: The wrong candidate can be an issue as well, as we saw with the Coaklay-Brown contest in 2009.
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