The recession will end this year

I have repeatedly noted (see here and here) that the media and pundits are hugely exaggerating the seriousness of our present economic problems. The Congressional Budget Office apparently agrees; according to its forecasts, the recession will end in the second half of 2009, with unemployment peaking at 9.2% -- high by American standards but still well below the peak rate of the 1981-1982 recession. The original CBO report (PDF) is here, the relevant excerpt here. So much for the panic-mongering about a second Great Depression.