22 April 2026

Developments in Iran -- unconfirmed but interesting

I should start by noting that the source site for this information, Turbulent Times, is not a source I'd normally rely on for news about Iran -- first, it's not Middle-East-based (it's in the UK), and second, in the past I've seen posts there about US domestic politics that seriously misjudged what was going on here, so it doesn't have a sterling track record.  However, its claims in this case are based on Middle Eastern social media reports.  So it's worth considering, cautiously:

A hint of what was to come came with a post two days ago which claimed that Israeli intelligence reports had revealed what it had described as "a deep division within Iran's ruling structure, following major leadership changes", pointing to the fact that power has become distributed among multiple centres of influence operating in an uncoordinated manner amid an escalating struggle over decision-making.....

A later report then referenced "unconfirmed reports" speaking of military confrontations inside the capital Tehran between the Iranian army and the Revolutionary Guard.  Such reports, if confirmed, the poster wrote, "mean that Iran is on the verge of a civil war and a struggle for power".  Then we had Saudi analyst Mansour Almalik also speaking of a revolutionary uprising in Tehran, with the startling news that the Revolutionary Guard had place[d] the official Iranian negotiating team under house arrest.  Negotiations with America are halted, he wrote
.

If any or all of this is true, it would confirm earlier indications that the regime is starting to disintegrate into fragmented groups competing for power, with no single person or group clearly in charge.  It would also explain the apparent confusion in the regime's approach to negotiations with the US.  Finally, it would account for why Israel and the US have held off resuming large-scale military attacks.  It would be wisest to wait until a clearer picture of the situation emerges, to assess how a new wave of attacks targeting specific leaders can best be designed to push the regime into total collapse at last.  Of course, the last point could change at any time.  As I've pointed out before, Trump's verbal statements are almost useless as a guide to what he will actually do.

A few other items of note:

All of these people will be killed soon.

Most of the missiles fired by the regime during the recent period of fighting were fired at Arab countries, not at Israel.

It has been one hundred days since the theocracy crushed the Iranian people's uprising, slaughtering tens of thousands.

Inside Iran, there is no ceasefire.  The regime has now brought in foreign Shiite militias to control the people -- essentially a foreign occupation.

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