While Trump has been all over the place about the goals of the war, even absurdly claiming that "regime change" has already happened, Israel remains focused, continuing to systematically destroy facilities of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij, the theocracy's main instruments for repressing uprisings. Israel assesses that it will only be a few more weeks before the system is degraded enough for a new rebellion to succeed. The collapse of tyranny is a process, not an instantaneous event, and in Iran that process is already underway.
Westerners, too, need to stay focused. Whether you like or dislike Trump or Netanyahu -- even if it's with good reason -- that doesn't make the Iranian people any less deserving of liberation, and recent events have shown that that liberation is not achievable without some external force intervening to wreck the apparatus of repression. Those in the West who oppose the current military campaign to do so are de facto collaborating with the continued rule of a monstrous evil over tens of millions of people. Their motives are wholly irrelevant. The same applies to the media, whose preferred spin is rooted mostly in petty domestic political considerations. Similarly, it doesn't really matter what motivated Trump or Netanyahu to launch the campaign. Only the eventual actual results on the ground are important.
As the old Balkan saying has it: The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on.
I have not heard much on this topic; had Xi and China had any role to play in this conflict?
ReplyDeleteAbout all I have read through was that China has taken great strides to reduce their reliance on oil coming through the Strait of Hormuz. I did hear something about providing some support, but that got lost amid the Trump chatter.
Personally, I feel nothing for the "war" other than contempt for those who blundered us into it. This is Dubya and Iraq only without the "Pretty Please!" to Congress before the first bombs got lobbed.
But here we are. Regime change. Sure. Chess? Not within the intellect of those in charge. Revenge? Absolutely on the table.
What a time to be alive...
Completely agree with your last paragrah.
ReplyDeleteMy opinion is that the US is pretty well useless to do what you want, but Israel could probably succeed. I wonder if the USA will show similar concern over other atrocious regimes although I guess none have the clout of Iran.
ReplyDeleteRade: It is striking how little China has done to help Iran. It's been suggested that the campaign is partly a warning to China, showing what will happen to them if they attack Taiwan. If so, I think that's a very minor motivation.
ReplyDeleteChina has invested massively in green energy, and that has given them some insulation from the effects of oil shortages, as I noted in a recent link round-up.
I think the rest of your comment has already been addressed by my previous posts about this.
It would be difficult to find two countries less similar in history, political culture, and in almost everything else, than Iran and Iraq.
Bijoux: Thank you. I feel it's an important point.
Anvil: Trump's mental deterioration and inability to focus does worry me. However, our military is far more competent than the people currently running our government. So long as the job is the job, they will get it done, as far as is humanly possible.
Most other tyrannical regimes don't cause as much trouble in the outside world as Iran's, and the one that does (China) is too large a country to contemplate a similar operation there. There's also the point that the Iranians have repeatedly risen up against the regime in huge numbers, most recently in January, suggesting they're ready to bring about change if we help them.