The rebellion in Iran (with updates)

The uprising now taking place across Iran is probably the most serious challenge to the theocracy in its near-half-century of rule.  It started on December 28, the immediate triggers being water shortages and a collapse of the value of the currency.  The public's years-long pent-up frustration over the regime's repressive and corrupt rule quickly burst forth front and center, and within a few days mass rallies against the regime spread to hundreds of cities across all of Iran's thirty-one provinces, with millions of people participating.  There is no evidence of any leadership or organization, though the exiled crown prince Rezā Pahlavi has emerged as a figurehead, with popular slogans calling for his return to Iran.

At first the theocracy's response appeared confused and desultory, but on January 8 it cut off internet across the country and almost all communications with the outside world, and by all accounts since then it has escalated its repression to the level of mass murder, including firing into crowds with machine guns.  The news site Iran International, by analysis of what reports are available, estimates that at least twelve thousand people have been massacred, while CBS is reporting a claim that the number may be as high as twenty thousand.  What reports are getting out make it clear that there is mass violence on a huge scale, with hospitals being overwhelmed.  It is clear that these cold-blooded, religious old men will stop at nothing to cling to power.

A common theme in early reports has been the hopelessness and despair of the masses, a sense that life under the theocracy is not worth living anyway, so there is little to lose in fighting even though challenging the regime is obviously dangerous.  Now that the die is cast, the people's attitude seems to be one of desperate but determined defiance.  Women have been burning hijabs, a hated symbol of the theocracy's religious repression.

It is difficult to predict what direction the revolt will take now.  With most information cut off, it is hard to tell to what extent the resistance is continuing now that the regime has escalated to mass murder.  Like most tyrannical regimes, the theocracy has strict gun laws to keep its subjects unarmed and unable to defend themselves against the government's armed thugs, and it would take great courage indeed for unarmed civilians to press home the attack in the face of machine guns.  The massacres have been carried out by the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij militia, which are highly-ideological forces specialized for internal repression -- not by the regular army.  How the army would respond if called upon is unclear.  Trump keeps threatening to attack the regime if it kills protesters, but now that thousands have indeed been killed, no action has been forthcoming, and it's not clear whether the US could inflict really substantial damage on the apparatus of repression without causing substantial civilian casualties.  Iran has seen huge mass uprisings every few years for the last couple of decades, but the regime has succeeded in regaining control each time.  Reports on the ground say that this time it "feels different".  Only time will tell whether the outcome will be better.

If the rebellion succeeds in toppling the theocracy and installing a system more reflective of the popular will, it would vastly change the entire situation in the Middle East.  As I've pointed out before, Iran is no longer really a Muslim country -- as of 2020, only 37% of the population self-identified as Muslim and 34% identified as atheist, humanist, or "none".  A democratic Iran would cease to support jihadist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, and might well even become an ally of Israel and the West against jihadist fanaticism in the region generally.

If the theocracy succeeds in crushing the revolt, there will be mass executions and a new wave of aggressive repression, but after that, nothing but more stagnation.  The regime has no solutions for Iran's problems, and will continue its extremist policies that keep the country isolated and poor.  The popular reaction might involve a protracted general strike or increased efforts by anyone who can to escape from Iran.  Most likely there would be yet another mass uprising a few years down the road.

I will continue to watch, hoping for the best for a nation which embodies one of the world's great historic civilizations, and which deserved better than the tragic mess in which religious barbarity has kept it mired for half a century.

Updates (Wednesday evening):

The US is evacuating troops from some bases near Iran, a possible precursor to a military strike against the theocracy.  This kind of thing is only likely to fan the flames.

Regime leaders are wiring huge amounts of cryptocurrency to accounts outside of Iran, a predictable precaution if they are worrying about needing to flee.

Russia would lose a major ally if the regime falls, but it has little power to influence events.  The theocracy has sold Russia more than four billion dollars worth of military equipment since the start of the Ukraine invasion.

Rezā Pahlavi declares that a liberated Iran will immediately stop support for jihadist gangs, recognize Israel, and generally adopt modern democratic norms and standards.  One can't predict how much actual power he would have if the regime fell, but he clearly has a considerable base of support among the resistance.