The uprising in Balochistan

Yesterday Mir Yar Baloch, a man described as a "leader" in Pakistan's province of Balochistan, declared independence from Pakistan and asked for support from India and the world community.  It's not yet clear how much support this move has within Balochistan or how capable the province is of asserting itself against the Pakistani central government.

If this does turn out to be a serious effort at secession, the impact on the already crumbling and decrepit Pakistani state will be substantial.  On the map above, the red area is Balochistan, while the yellow is the rest of Pakistan, and the yellow/grey crosshatched area is the part of Kashmir which is controlled by India but claimed by Pakistan, where the recent Pahalgam jihadist attack happened.  Balochistan has about 40% of Pakistan's land area but only 15 million of the country's 241 million people (much of it is desert); it also contains a large share of Pakistan's mineral resources.  When British India was divided to become two independent states in 1947, opinion within Balochistan was at best very divided over whether or not to become part of the Muslim state of Pakistan, even though Balochistan is solidly Muslim.  Baloch nationalists claim that Pakistan seized the territory by force.  Since 1947 there have been several armed rebellions against Pakistani rule, some lasting years.

Over the last week, while the Pakistani military was reeling from India's Operation Sindoor in retaliation for the Pahalgam attack, the BLA (Baloch Liberation Army) carried out a series of 71 attacks on Pakistani military and other governmental targets.  Yesterday's declaration was the political culmination of this wave of attacks.

The Chinese gangster-state has long been propping up the Pakistani regime (because both are enemies of India) and is its main weapons supplier.  For this reason Chinese in Pakistan have been a main target for the BLA, with over sixty being killed in the last four years.

If Balochistan secedes or even if a sustained rebellion challenges the Pakistani state, the consequences may not be confined to Pakistan.  As in many parts of the world, the existing political borders in this area are a product of historical accident and European colonial machinations, and do not reflect the ethnic and geographical realities on the ground.  The Baloch language and culture are also predominant in a large area of southeastern Iran, which might draw inspiration from a successful rebellion in Pakistani Balochistan.  Much of northwestern Pakistan (including part of Balochistan) is inhabited by ethnic Pashtuns (also called Pathans during British rule), the same ethnic group which inhabits neighboring southeastern Afghanistan and forms the main power base of the Taliban.  If the Pakistani state is seriously disrupted by a Baloch revolt and by ongoing conflict with India, the status of that area might also be challenged.

Even Pakistan's two core provinces, Punjab and Sindh, speak different languages.  Pakistan is a hodgepodge of disparate regions which have little in common except that they're Muslim and happened to lie within the borders of British India in 1947.  Pakistan is already pretty close to being a failed state, and it's not out of the question that a combination of crises could lead to its disintegration.  If that happens, India might feel compelled to launch an all-out assault to destroy Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, to prevent it from falling into the hands of jihadist gangs.

The Western media have ignored the uprising in Balochistan and given little attention even to the Pahalgam attack and Operation Sindoor, and most Americans are almost completely ignorant of these matters.  They are important, nevertheless.