Video of the day -- tariff time

Some of Peter Zeihan's analyses of issues get a bit too hyperbolic for my taste, but in this case he's just giving an unusually clear explanation of the plain facts.  Economically, the CUM countries (Canada-US-Mexico) are so tightly integrated that imposing harsh new tariffs between them would massively disrupt innumerable supply chains and cripple US manufacturing.  Combined with the decline in business and consumer spending due to uncertainty caused by all the random blundering in Washington, and reduction of government spending caused by DOGE, the tariffs would make a deep recession almost inevitable.

The stock market has been falling, which might yet make Trump delay or rescind most of the tariffs, as he has already done twice before.  But even the recurring threat to impose them is causing much uncertainty and economic damage.  And if he does stick with the tariffs, expect the nightmare of "stagflation" -- high inflation and a serious recession at the same time.

Trump is also expected to announce tariffs on other major economies.  Europe and East Asia are prepared to retaliate.  To anyone who knows about the generations-old hatreds in East Asia, the spectacle of Japan, China, and South Korea coming together on this issue (or any issue) is astonishing.  By picking fights with every other major economy at once, Trump is unifying most of the world against the US, in a pointless trade war he can't win.