Self-genocide

Over the last few days, some right-wing leaders in the US have abruptly pivoted to a more pro-vaccine message.  Moscow Mitch, Sean Hannity, and Alabama governor Kay Ivey have been notable examples.  Recently senator Tommy Tuberville and Sarah Huckabee Sanders added their voices (the latter garnished with a steaming pile of liberal-bashing, but still).  And the reason is becoming obvious.

Almost all the people who ever paid attention to the anti-covid-vaccine nonsense in the first place (and to the allied nonsense that downplayed the threat posed by the disease), are their own right-wing followers.  Rejection of the vaccine, like rejection of mask-wearing and of the facts about the lethality of covid-19, have become a mark of right-wing tribal identity.  This is why, throughout the pandemic, most of the states with the highest per-capita covid-19 case loads and death rates have been red states, despite most of those states being thinly populated and thus theoretically less vulnerable to an infectious disease.  Florida, perhaps the most urbanized red state, is being devastated.

The adult (over 18) population of the US is 258 million.  Right now, 155 million US adults (60%) are fully vaccinated, and a further 23 million (9%) have received one shot of the two-shot vaccines.  Those 23 million have some protection against the disease, though not as much as the fully-vaccinated, but the remaining 80 million are totally unprotected.  That 80 million, it's safe to assume, consists mostly of the hard-core right-wing base (there are a few people who cannot be vaccinated for various medical reasons, but the numbers are fairly small).  Consistent with that, 80% of the unvaccinated say they "probably" or "definitely" will never accept the vaccine.

Currently, 99.5% of covid-19 deaths are among the unvaccinated 31% of the adult population.  While some vaccinated people are still getting the disease, it rarely becomes serious or lethal among them.  Crippling, deadly covid-19 is now almost entirely confined to the unvaccinated.

The new delta variant is far more infectious than the original covid-19, and also deadlier since it is killing greater numbers of younger people.  As best we can tell, the vaccines provide the same protection against delta as against the original covid-19 -- if you are vaccinated, you are substantially less likely to get infected, and vastly less likely to become seriously ill or die (this is based on what's going on in the US -- some other countries are using different vaccines which may be less effective than the three being used here, which means that data from those countries is less relevant to our situation).  So it seems safe to assume that the death toll from the oncoming wave of delta-variant infections will continue to be almost entirely among the unvaccinated.

How bad is it going to get?

Since the beginning of the pandemic, in the US there have been 35 million total reported covid-19 cases and 610,000 deaths, a death rate of 1 in 57 (it's likely that the true number of both cases and deaths is higher, but even if both figures are, say, twice as high in reality, the ratio would be about the same).  Since the delta variant kills a higher proportion of the younger adults who contract it, it seems safe to assume the death rate will be substantially higher, perhaps 1 in 40 or even worse.

Given the much greater infectiousness of the delta variant, this analysis projects that it will sweep the entire unvaccinated population of the US in just four months.  CNN's chief medical correspondent concurs that soon Americans will be divided into just two groups -- the vaccinated and the infected.

If we have 80 million delta-variant cases in the next four months, and the death rate is 1 in 40, two million people will die.  In fact, there's reason to think it will be even worse.  My guess at how much deadlier the delta variant will be is probably too conservative.  Measures like lockdowns and mask mandates, which contained covid-19 somewhat during 2020, are unlikely to be re-imposed; and even if they are, the unvaccinated, who mostly downplay the disease, will be unlikely to comply.  A health-care system which was often overwhelmed by 35 million cases spread over a year and a half will be utterly overwhelmed by 80 million cases in four months, so the standard of medical care available will be lower.  And cases will be concentrated in red states and rural areas (since that's where most of the unvaccinated people are), where medical facilities are sparser and health conditions such as smoking and obesity are generally worse than in the cities.  There are too many unknowns to make hard estimates, but it seems reasonable to project that if most of the unvaccinated remain unvaccinated, there will be at least two million further covid-19 deaths in the US before the end of this year, likely far more.

And most of those who die will be voting-age conservatives, since that's the demographic which makes up most unvaccinated adults.  Even in a country as large as the US, two (or three or four) million deaths almost entirely on one side of the political divide will be enough to affect later election outcomes, especially since some states are almost 50-50, and most gerrymandered districts have only narrow Republican majorities.  Now you know why right-wing leaders are suddenly getting worried.  They see and know the reality of the situation, even if the delusional lemmings of their base don't.

Will their warnings turn the tide and persuade the unvaccinated to save themselves?  At the moment it doesn't look that way.  From what I'm seeing on the right-wing blogs and news sites I read, most rank-and-file wingnuts are so deeply committed to the anti-vax / covid-is-overblown narrative that they are brushing off the warnings or even denouncing those who issue them as RINOs.  McConnell's statement drew plenty of right-wing flak.  Hannity has already walked back his own warning.  The one thing that might make a real difference would be a strong pro-vaccine exhortation from Donald Trump himself, but Trump is not known for willingness to admit he was wrong about things, and he currently seems mainly interested in rehashing his claims about the 2020 election being stolen.

The suggestion that an advanced country like the United States might suffer millions of deaths from infectious disease, when the vaccines to prevent it are widely available, may seem like a ludicrous fantasy.  Yet I see no flaw in the logic here, and Republican leaders' rare willingness to challenge their base's delusions suggests that they too perceive the magnitude of the danger.  By far the worst of this pandemic is probably still ahead of us.

It will be the greatest mass suicide in history, a self-genocide.  The wingnut politicians and media con men who led their followers into this disaster make Jim Jones look like an amateur.