30 January 2015

Sizing up the Republican demolition derby

Incredibly, it's looking as if the 2016 Republican Presidential field may be even more crowded than the 2012 version.  Republican sites have been circulating this handy inventory of possible contenders, grouped into four categories (I've taken the liberty of providing translations of the categories, adding Lindsey Graham, and listing the candidates in each group in order of how much chance I think they have):

Establishment (relatively sane)
Mitt Romney
Jeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Chris Christie
Lindsey Graham
Carly Fiorina

Tea Party (deranged baggots)
Rand Paul
Ted Cruz
Michele Bachmann
Donald Trump
Sarah Palin

Social Conservatives (religious loons)
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
Rick Santorum
Ben Carson

Governors (fascists and bores)
Scott Walker
Rick Perry
Rick Snyder
John Kasich
Mike Pence

That's 20 names.  I don't think Trump or Palin will run, and I have my doubts about Fiorina and Bachmann (though party leaders won't be happy with the optics of an all-male field against Hillary), but we'll almost certainly have well over a dozen entrants, some of them as colorfully crazy as any of 2012's crowd.  The odds are Romney gets the nomination again -- he's already well ahead in polls of Republicans, and he's got more gravitas than the rest of this motley crew combined -- but with Bush splitting the non-insane vote, and the "base" of foaming-at-the-mouth baggots and fundamentalist nutjobs more determined than ever not to let a "moderate" claim the prize again, the end result is far from assured, and getting there will be one hell of a trip.  I mean, look at this list.  Is there enough popcorn in the whole country?

UpdateWell, shee-it, Romney's already turkeyed out on us, though he's left the door open just a crack (see comment 69 at the link and 42 here).  This leaves Jeb Bush as the main establishment candidate -- and the main target for the utter-loon faction which is determined to prevent another moderate nominee.  The demolition derby will now be a bit less intricate, but should still be quite a spectacle.


Blogger Ahab said...

Palin has little chance of success. She's old news, she has few credentials, and her speech at the Iowa Freedom Summit made her fellow conservatives squirm. And then there's this, for a chuckle:


30 January, 2015 07:07  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

I don't think Palin will even run. She's now a celebrity, not a real politician. I kind of wish she would, though. She'd make the whole rest of the field look even more un-serious by association.

30 January, 2015 09:25  
Blogger Shaw Kenawe said...

Romney decided not to run because he wanted to spend more time with his car elevators.

And who can blame him.

I'll make a wild prediction: John Ellis Bush.

30 January, 2015 13:00  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

JEB is not a sane moderate. See Terry Schiavo case and how he inserted himself into that poor woman's tortured demise. We must dispel the better bush myth. He's as stubborn and stupid as his brother.

30 January, 2015 18:02  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

Shaw: Yes, he's got the best chance now, but the baggots and fundies will give him a hell of a fight getting there.

Anon: Well, I did say relatively sane. They no longer have any candidates like Eisenhower or even Goldwater. Bush and Romney just look less bonkers when you compare them to Bachmann or Paul.

30 January, 2015 18:19  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Didn't mean to bark, but W got sold as the "compasdionate conservative" and went on to establish a torture and gulag system.

Don't want to get fooled twice again (wink). I am tired of the freedom lovers being up our utereri and beside our death beds. Time to expose the whole lot for the intrusive, war-mongering control freaks that they are.

After W, the Bush name should be spoken in whispers and followed by spits on the ground. Instead, we might run another one. The thought should be "inconceivable," but here we are.

30 January, 2015 20:46  
Blogger Shaw Kenawe said...

"The thought should be 'inconceivable,' but here we are."

Citizens United all but guarantees that only the very powerful and the very wealthy can run for the presidency. Both the Bushes and the Clintons have access to both.

So yes, here we are.

31 January, 2015 04:45  
Anonymous NickM said...

I might hazard a guess at Jeb Bush winning. Now if he does two terms then Chelsea Clinton will be old enough to run...

USA - welcome to the dual dynasty monarchy! Because by then there will be another Bush - currently a shrub - ready.

31 January, 2015 07:17  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

Anon: I wouldn't trust any of 'em with power. Even the Repubs know W is toxic. He was barely mentioned at their 2012 convention, while Bill Clinton got a starring role at the Dems'.

Shaw: Well, we'll see. I think Bush's name will be a handicap in the general election, money or no money.

Nick: Bush will most likely win the nomination (unless Romney gets back in), but I can't see him winning the general. If Hillary chooses a good VP (Warren?) that person will be the favorite in 2020 or 2024.

31 January, 2015 09:00  
Blogger Green Eagle said...

I called it for Jeb months ago. First of all, the rich guys always get their nominee (Romney, McCain, Bush, Dole, the other Bush, Reagan, etc.) And Romney had his shot and made a fool out of himself. Republicans know that this time the pressure for him to produce his tax returns will be overwhelming, and he clearly can't be trusted to speak extemporaneously. They know that Bush will do exactly what they want. The whole primary process is just a circus to convince the rubes that they have a say. At the end of the day, the rich guys are going to pick the nominee, and that will be Bush.

31 January, 2015 23:04  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

Green: Good point especially about the tax returns and the gaffes. I wanted it to be Romney because even though he superficially seems formidable, I think he'd be easy to beat. Unfortunately the Republican establishment and Romney himself seem to also realize that.

01 February, 2015 05:07  
Blogger Green Eagle said...

I agree with you. As the outing of the self-entitled, greedy rich continues, it will be harder and harder for one of them to pass himself off as the champion of the rest of us, and Mr. 47% has pretty much made it impossible for him to do that. All his new garbage about how much he cares for the middle class will just convince more people of what we already know: Romney is a soulless, unprincipled liar, who will say or do anything to get what he wants, and who cares nothing about the rest of us. I.e. a charter member of the Republican base.

01 February, 2015 15:14  

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