The tide is turning in Ukraine

As mentioned here earlier this month, the US-supplied HIMARS system is emerging as a game-changer in the Ukraine war (the UK and Germany have also been supplying similar systems).  The Ukrainians' ability to destroy ammunition stockpiles, command posts, and other logistical targets far to the rear of the Russian front line has seriously degraded the Russians' fighting ability.  They are grinding forward only very slowly in a few places, and Ukraine is increasingly going on the offensive.  There has also been a dramatic decrease in Ukrainian battlefield casualties, probably because Russian shelling is down to a fraction of its former intensity.

Russia seems to be trying to regain the upper hand by continuing its missile attacks on random civilian targets, to terrorize the population, but even there, the Ukrainians are getting better at shooting down missiles.

Poland and the Baltic states are ordering HIMARS and similar systems, a wise precaution in light of Putin's aggression.  Even Kazakhstan, formerly at least somewhat subservient to Russia, is becoming alarmed enough to start seeking Western support.

The tide is turning.  But as the war enters its sixth month, it's obvious that no fast and easy solution is in the offing.  The democracies will need to continue their support, in the form of both weapons and sanctions, for months to come yet.  A negotiated peace that allows Putin to keep some gains would be a de facto positive for him and encourage further aggression.  Ukraine needs to win.