A last look back at 2019

Mainstream media coverage may not have reflected it, but the most important story of 2019 was the Amazon synod and the way it forced the divisions and conflicts within the Catholic Church to the surface.  Yes, there were other big stories -- the pro-independence election landslide in Britain, the Trump impeachment in the US, the Hong Kong protests and the Uighur persecution in China, the Kashmir crackdown and the new citizenship law (and protests) in India -- but each of these was basically a matter of the internal politics of just one country, and except for the British election, none of them seems likely to have much effect on the course of events even within its country.  A major upheaval and division within the Catholic Church, which now looks inevitable, will have a substantial impact on dozens of countries.

I posted about the synod's potential to trigger a schism, traditional Catholics' furious response to the Vatican's apparent embrace of paganism, and the hardening battle lines between the true believers and the leadership.  It's an unprecedented fracture within the largest, oldest, and most powerful religious organization in the world -- one which remains a dominant cultural force in Latin America, Poland, and the Philippines, and has substantial influence in sub-Saharan Africa and our own country.  Not even the Protestant Reformation offered such a stark challenge to such fundamental dogmas and taboos -- and this time the attack on orthodoxy is coming from the hierarchy itself, not lesser figures like Martin Luther.  Conservative Catholics find themselves in the bizarre position of rebelling against their traditional authorities to defend doctrines rooted in authoritarian tradition.

The decline of the Catholic Church has been under way for centuries and still has a long way to go.  But I suspect future historians will note 2019 as the pivotal year, the true beginning of the end.

Another recurring theme that struck me as significant was the massive investment in solar power in India, China, and several Arab countries.  Even with the Trump administration idiotically AWOL from the fight against global warming, the 96% of humanity that lives outside the US is taking serious action on the problem.  As the developing countries of the "Third World" catch up economically and technologically over the next couple of decades, their electricity consumption will dwarf that of the West (due to population size), so their commitment to meeting their needs from renewable energy is of huge significance.

Finally, the most important changes in the world are often ongoing trends, not sudden events -- such as the decline of religion as societies become more educated and more open to new information.  This graphic on the Arab world is particularly arresting (click to enlarge):

I've posted before about the secularization of Muslim populations in Europe, refuting the wingnut "Eurabia" fantasies that Islam will eventually overwhelm and dominate Europe.  But as Ibn Warraq predicted 25 years ago, in the face of inexorable modernity, Islam cannot even hold the ground where it has been most deeply entrenched the longest -- the Arab world itself.  The figures above show the same pattern as in the US -- the non-religious minority is growing fast, and is largest among the younger generation.  If religion is losing in these lands, in the long run it's doomed everywhere.  Know hope.