The real problem was turnout. Trump actually got slightly fewer votes than he did in 2020. Harris got thirteen million fewer votes than Biden did that year (though the figure may improve a bit when California finishes counting). So there was no growth in support for Trump, but rather a shortfall in Democratic turnout -- this in spite of all the talk about surging new-voter registrations. The number of votes Harris got was similar to what the Democratic candidates got in 2008, 2012, and 2016; the 2020 turnout represented an unusual surge. Still, one would have expected the turnout for Harris to be higher than it was -- the US population has grown since 2016, and the threat of Trump was on the ballot again. The shortfall fits with my post yesterday -- apparently a fair number of people who would normally vote Democratic are getting turned off.
I have some hope that this election will help the mainstream left start to get over its coddling of Islam. A substantial number of Muslim voters followed through on their threat to "punish" the Democrats by voting for Stein or even for Trump, and in any case US Muslims have been trending more and more Republican over time, based on shared hostility to gays, feminism, secularism, etc. The Jewish vote, of course, remains overwhelmingly Democratic.
After losing the 2020 election, Trump tried to pressure Pence into using his presiding role at the counting of electoral votes to sabotage the count and deliver victory to him. It's fortunate for him that this bizarre idea -- that the Constitution empowers the outgoing vice president to nullify an election result -- never won wide acceptance.
Looking around the left-wing blogosphere, a lot of people seem to be engaged in a grimly determined round of point-missing, insisting that Harris lost because too many people are closet bigots who won't vote for a black or female candidate. It's the old leftist curse of interpreting everything in terms of identity politics, believing that the general population is as obsessed with race and gender as they themselves are. It ignores the fact that Obama won the presidency twice, and Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016. It also ignores the fact that the same low-turnout problem affected Democratic candidates across the board, not just Harris.
The outcome makes me wonder whether things like money and GOTV actually have much effect any more. The Democrats far outperformed the Republicans in both areas, but it didn't seem to help. On the other hand, maybe the results would have been even worse without them.
It also appears that "shocking" gaffes don't have much real impact. Many expected that the "floating island of garbage" joke, and Trump's vile rhetoric about immigrants, would be fatal errors -- but he and the Republicans got more Hispanic votes than ever.
And apparently we can no longer put much stock in traditional ways of forecasting election results. We had endless polls and there were critical things they all got wrong. Florida and Texas were supposed to be close; they weren't. Surveys of early voters showed them breaking massively for Harris even though many of them were Republicans; the final election results strongly suggest that this was not accurate. Even the vaunted Ann Selzer got Iowa totally wrong. Similarly, there was a lot of talk about seeing more Harris lawn signs than Trump ones even in Republican areas, and about Trump's rallies drawing meager and unenthusiastic crowds compared to Harris's; yet obviously this didn't tell us anything about actual voter enthusiasm. For future elections, I don't see how we can really claim to know anything in advance.
For a typical US male at age 78, the average remaining life expectancy is about eight years. Given Trump's obesity, horrible diet, refusal to exercise, and histrionic temperament, his real life expectancy must be quite a bit less; and seeing how his dementia is advancing, I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes obviously unable to function as president mere months from now. Get busy learning all you can about JD Vance and his views. He'll probably be president for some or even most of Trump's term.
Yes, the Democrats need to have a good hard think about the inaccurate stereotypes they throw at their opponents - they're all bigots, racists, sexists etc. They need to talk to more ordinary folk and discover what they're really thinking and not what the Democrats think they're thinking.
ReplyDeleteInfidel, like most of the things you write, I find nuggets with which I agree and disagree. The identity politics favored by the far left does their cause a huge disservice. Most people, even evil Republicans, simply don't care about race and gender, but rather about policy positions. I recall voting for Allen Keyes for president in the primary years before anyone even knew who Barrack Obama was.
ReplyDeleteAs for D.C. and Puerto Rico being states, well... DC should always remain a DISTRICT as stated in the constitution. Regarding Puerto Rico, I had the privilege of having been stationed there in the service for two 9 month periods in the 1980's. Granted things may have changed some since then, as I suspect they have, but I have paid attention to this island that captured my heart years ago. There have been several referendum votes for Puerto Ricans over the decades asking this very question. The results would always end up being roughly the same. 33% wanted statehood. 33% wanted to maintain the status quo of being a US territory, and 33% wanted independence. I am curious where that stands today, but I suspect it wouldn't vary much.
Trump's health is such that I think he will be just fine for the next four years. I am surprised how many left-of-center Americans think that Trump has early dementia but completely deny the myriad documented examples of Biden suffering from this.
Regardless, I would very much like to see Trump and congress tone down the divisive rhetoric, work on balancing the budget, and move forward with constitutional policies to strengthen our economy and nation. I am cautiously optimistic, but we shall see.
"I love the poorly educated", he said. Here's why:
ReplyDeleteRepublican strategist Sarah Longwell on NPR talking about public opinion of Trump’s tyrannical posture:
“When I ask voters in focus groups if they think Donald Trump is an authoritarian, the #1 response by far is, ‘what’s an authoritarian?’”
I'm sure "what indictments" would be their take as well. The border and the culture war got all the ratings.
This explains the fascists' war on education and truth.
That was my point. Half the people (5 - one of my sisters was protesting too) in my family who usually vote democrat did not vote. We are not some weirdo outlier. We are pretty average middle class white people with jobs like accountant, nurse and computer programmer. They all voted for Biden in 2020. So if that trend was in my family, I bet it was in others too. Which is infuriating. They protested Gaza by throwing our country under the bus for a war the Dems did not start. Hamas is clearly to blame. There were probably some other reason too like voter suppression. Who knows but for whatever reason, the voters did not show up for that beautiful, funny, smart, capable women (you can tell I have a bit of a girl crush).
ReplyDeleteNick: Most Americans want an end to the polarization and demonization and all the hysterical yelling and screaming. Unfortunately it's the worst extremes who have the loudest voices.
ReplyDeleteDarrell: The statehood proposals for DC include keeping a small federal district encompassing the Capitol, the White House, and a few other major government buildings. The greater part of DC, which is inhabited by ordinary citizens like any other US city, would become a state.
Support for statehood in Puerto Rico is currently around 57%. In any case, at some point there needs to be a referendum with statehood or independence as the only options. The current status, in which it's part of the US but isn't a state, is anomalous and not really appropriate to a post-colonial world. The other US territories are too small in population to be states, but Puerto Rico isn't.
Trump's increasingly incoherent speeches strongly suggest rapid mental deterioration. There are lots of examples posted. There's no evidence that Biden suffers from dementia, just deceptively-edited videos on right-wing sites intended to create that impression. I'm somewhat uncomfortable with having a leader of such age, since I know how mental sharpmess and stamina can decline, but Biden and Trump are close together in age. In any case, I don't see any value on further discussing that point. You've made it clear what you believe.
I'm all for balancing the budget so long as it's done by restoring reasonable tax rates on the wealthy. Any cuts to the already threadbare and inadequate social safety net in this country would be worse than allowing the current deficit situation to continue.
Dave: the #1 response by far is, ‘what’s an authoritarian?’
I find that very hard to believe. Most people are not that ignorant. I suspect people who make such claims of being selective about whom they ask or what responses they consider.
Lady M: Well, if people (a) want to save Hamas from annihilation so it can kill more Jews in the future, and (b) think that the way to accomplish that is to refuse to vote for Harris so that Trump is the one setting Middle East policy, they're irredeemable. The only option is to offset losing them by trying to appeal to more mainstream voters in the political center -- which is the point of the general abandonment of crazy stuff I've been advocating here. But the best objective data we have suggest that it wasn't a major factor in the loss of votes for the Democrats. If it had been, only Harris would have lost badly, and the turnout for other Democrats who have no connection with Middle East policy wouldn't have dropped as well.
I understand what you mean about Harris. The thought that we could have had her leading the country, but instead we're stuck with Trump again, makes me retch.
Pretty comprehensive analysis- I enjoyed working through it, good comments too. I needed that
ReplyDeleteI’m just about done pouting now,
time to fight again. Managed not to crack open the scotch I had purchased for to celebrate Harris victory 😁
But surely these MAGA morons can’t resist overreach, there’s NO chance of that- his team is low talent & brains, or certainly no one willing to speak up to his insanity. And talk about hubris
Because of SCOTUS/this election Trump thinks he’s invincible- power drunk. But he will do a face plant. Things will go well for a while… until they don’t.
One element of control over this guy is plunging polls. That’s guaranteed when the tariffs bite
And every element of Project 2025 has legal challenges already drawn-up in multiple states, all set to go on each item. All they have to do is hit the PRINT button when Trump makes a move
We’re going to tie the craziest stuff up in the court for years. Same as he did to us. And they’re not gonna file them in Texas or with the Judge Canon or any waste of time like that— it will be in blue states only
The ACLU won 400 suits against the Trump administration the first time around, these kind of things are what slowed him down and it’s going to happen again in a more comprehensive and coordinated manner, Gavin Newson at the vanguard
I also think John Roberts is aware and afraid of what he unleashed with the immunity, so he might be a bit more selective about what’s OK when it gets to him item by item over the next couple years. It is said Amy Comey Barrett is open to reason
And how the hell is he going to deport people, there’s no force/$ for that, and the states will refuse
It’s against the law to use US troops to enforce domestic policy. That basically only leaves ICE and DHS. Would take 10 years to do what Trump‘s talking about with them
Might just pretend to do all these things, like the weak little tariffs the first time around with China that really didn’t do much except hurt US farmers
All that optimism aside,
what a nightmare. And he’s got an even worse VP as a life insurance policy
Thanks. I agree with pretty much all you said here -- that's pretty much how I envisage things going. The Trumpazoids are better prepared this time, but so are we. And most of the brainpower is on our side. Thank goodness for the federal system. States have a lot of power, and those of us who live in blue states will be protected from a lot of the worst.
ReplyDeleteIt's astonishing that so many right-wing voters were unaware until now of the effect Trump's tariffs would have. The Harris campaign alone raised over a billion dollars. Why didn't they get the message out to that demographic? They could have bought tons of ads on Fox, or sent surrogates to appear there every chance they got. Whatever it took to reach those voters.
Vance, at least, has nothing like Trump's charisma or cult status. He won't be able to intimidate spineless Republican officeholders into going along with him as much as Trump has.
Right on. I had this exact thought yesterday, that Vance can’t do what Trump does if the moment arises. Guy’s got the charisma of a parking meter.
DeleteI also had a hunch that Gavin Newsom is about to make a name for himself— perhaps Josh Shapiro too. This is the moment that calls for heroes
Here's my hot take. For core Trump supporters, what happened during the Biden administration validated the reasons why they support Trump. In NY, where I live, there was a lot of backlash in the suburbs over the Democratic state legislature and governor passing bail reform laws that were perceived to reward criminals at a time when crime was increasing. Another law made it legal for illegal immigrants to get driver's licenses. It was put into effect in early 2020, and it resulted in long lines at motor vehicle offices, which angered many people. I even put off having my daughter from applying for the permit, and then the COVID lockdowns happened, and we had to wait months for her to apply. Things like this created a backlash against Democrats in NY.
ReplyDeleteI can believe it. Evidently, endlessly pointing out that Trump is a felon and a racist and so forth wasn't the trump card many expected. A lot of people vote mostly on the basis of things that have a direct effect on them personally.
DeleteSigh . . . What would I say to the people who voted for the orange one??? Lets start here:
ReplyDeleteI think you all should get together and pay the $3 trillion I laid out to say your, ahhh butts.
"The Biden administration passed $3 trillion of legislation aimed at revitalizing the American economy and fostering green, equitable, “middle-out” growth. It sent checks to voters, canceled student-loan debt, made direct deposits to parents, showered the country in tax credits, and financed the construction of roads, transmission lines, and bridges. Kamala Harris ran as Joe Biden’s successor in the midst of what some financial analysts described as the greatest economy ever, characterized by strong wage growth, low unemployment, falling inequality, and world-beating GDP.
Funded small businesses and then forgave them.
Extends ACA subsidies to people who, based on income, do not currently qualify for 2021 and 2022; Increases ACA subsidies for lower-income people who already qualify for 2021 and 2022; Provides maximal ACA subsidies for individuals that receive unemployment benefits in 2021; Prevents taxpayers who misestimated their income in 2020 from having to repay excess premium tax credits at tax time; and Creates a “special rule” regarding premium tax credit eligibility for those who receive unemployment compensation during 2021.This included people of some substance too an n ot just for the poor.
Medicaid was expanded to cover people who were not covered before and well after the pandemic.
How quick constituents forget. How quick the political mukamucks forget. Don't turn your back on them either.
Biden was too old to run again and they should have talked him into not running. The inflation was caused by the programs saving their lame asses. Something a Tump Admin would have never done biggly.
This is rich . . . . "the Biden administration validated the reasons why they support Trump." Oh yeah Trump is gonnan treat them all better . . .
I think the problem is that not many people knew about those things. The Biden administration has been very good at getting things done and very bad at letting people know what it's gotten done.
DeleteThe Harris campaign alone raised over a billion dollars. It should have spent a lot more on publicizing these things, especially on right-wing media, to reach the reachable minority on the other side.