30 October 2020

Videos of the day -- reading the political tea leaves

First up, a close look at Texas:

This may or may not be the year Texas finally flips, but it is getting there.  Certainly the early-voting figures suggest that the final voter turnout for the state will be sharply higher than usual.

Next, Trevor Noah looks at Democrats' responses to the confirmation of Coathanger Coney:

Forget about assembling a "commission" of dodderers to mumble and ruminate for six months.  If we flood our new House and Senate majorities with calls and letters and drive them to pass legislation expanding the Supreme Court, Biden will not refuse to sign it.

Finally, the Lincoln Project has a warning for Trump:

Five more days to vote.


Blogger Sixpence Notthewiser said...

The Lincoln Project is KILLING it with the ads. Damn.
Trevor Noah is adorable. And speaks the truth. I’m all for that.

Cheeto was having a meltdown on Twitter at two a.m. a flop sweat all the way.


30 October, 2020 05:39  
Blogger Mary said...

Love the Lincoln Project.
I dread Nov. 4th ..the day after. I know it’s going to be chaos. I can feel it in my bones...he is going to refuse to go and with the Senate, the Republicans and now the Supreme Court in his control...what on earth will happen. I am very concerned.

30 October, 2020 05:59  
Blogger Shaw Kenawe said...

These are all encouraging videos in the most discouraging political era in my lifetime.

I'm almost feeling hope.

30 October, 2020 07:33  
Blogger Ranch Chimp said...

Noah makes some good points ... one of the things that stood out to me over following politics since 08, is the strategies of the GOP and in particular how fast they move, they waste no time when they see opportunity. Citizens United worx well too these dayz, because it makes Dems move further to the right and side with them (GOP) more in negotiations ... kind of like Republicans with the upper hand these dayz saying ... "if y'all don't play ball, you campaign funding will go in the shitter". We've become so dependent on Wall Street and Silicon Valley funding. I heard the other day, one woman running for Senate had $40 million for her campaign ... geeeezz!! how much does it take to run for office these dayz?!#*? When Clinton ran in 16, the big money donors told her (publicly, at that), that if she chooses Warren as a running mate she's fInished, regardless of what voters think ... they are running too much shit (the big bucks). If you get a majority across the board of Dems in this election, they will have a little more freedom to move on their plans ... and they will have to have public pressure, not like back in 09 when they had a majority, for a couple years ... because if people don't see enough done, they will lose favouritism again with a good number of Dems.

Texas is a unique atmosphere, with a culture of it's own ... different than the deep south (it's alwayz associated with) and different than the west coast. Conservatism is popular here for many reasons, not just religion. Take latinos here (Chicanos of Cali, and Tejanos of Texas have differences too). I known quite a few latino Conservatives, and north Texas (DFW) is different than South Texas or West Texas (kind of like how different north, south, inland and coastal Cali is). Set religion to the side a minute ... what many may like about it's conservative parts, is how business friendly Texas is ... I actually know a few folks that went from rags to riches because of how loose this is here. Taxes ... sure, a town like Dallas has a 8.5% sales tax ... but no state income tax. On the other hand, compared to a town like LA (I'm more familiar with LA, as far as California), LA rent and home prices is close to 3X times higher than here, yet the property taxes in SoCal are much lower than Dallas. People like the independence thing too, with less regulation, especially a metro like Dallas that has so many independent school districts, where a town like LA has more consolidation in their sprawl of suburbia into the LAUSD. People also like the strong right to defend yourself culture here, and fairly loose gun regulation. One thing that Texas misses the boat on as far as taxation, that I talked about for decades here, is gambling. This place could raise billions if they legaized full scale gambling (because their are illegal gambling places and slots all over town, in every city in Texas, I got 3 in walking distance in my own neighbourhood). Oklahoma and Louisiana make billions off Texans in their casinos (I myself go to Oklahoma WinStar casino mostly, about an hour drive from home). The lobbies of those 2 states (OK & LA) work hard in Austin, so we don't legalize it, because if we gave voters in Texas the choice, it would overwhelmingly win. Between Corpus and South Padre/ Brownsville, there are miles of beautiful beaches, empty, and cheap real estate. I envisioned a gambling coast, beautiful winter weather, coast, etc ... it would take business from Vegas, because of the geography and climate. I even think that brothels would bring in much, especially in the same area ... so there are other wayz to not have to start a state income tax too. But folks choosing conservatism here, has much more to it, than just being southern or love of religion.

30 October, 2020 08:15  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

Sixpence: Noah gets it. Biden may just be sticking with his reconciliationist patter to appeal to the low-information types, or he may genuinely not yet grasp the depth of his voters' anger about Moscow Mitch hijacking the Supreme Court. But if he doesn't, he will.

Mary: We'll see. Experience has shown that where violence is concerned, the wingnuts' actions tend to fall far short of their rhetoric. And the danger is like the danger of surgery to remove a lethal cancer. No matter how dangerous it is, we have no choice but to go ahead with the surgery, because leaving the orange tumor in place for another four years isn't an option.

As to Trump himself trying to pull something, over the past few months Electoral-Vote has addressed most of those scenarios and shown why they're not plausible.

Shaw: I feel very hopeful. I wasn't discouraged by the failure of the Mueller report or impeachment because I always knew there was no chance of those things making a difference. Our one chance was always the election.

Ranch: I think the impact of money on politics is exaggerated. There are lots of cases of well-funded campaigns losing to less-funded challengers. Money mostly buys ads, and after a certain point the added benefit of more ads is negligible. We do need to reduce the power of big donors, but a Democratic Congress can address that after they've dealt with all the more pressing matters.

I know Texas is different from the South -- different climate zone, therefore a different traditional economy (cattle vs plantation farming), therefore a different culture. It sounds like legal gambling and prostitution would bring in a lot of new revenues, and legal marijuana would probably do the same. But the conservative opposition to those things shows that conservatism these days really is based on religion more than on being business-friendly. A business-friendly conservatism would support those things, but actual Republicans don't, because they violate religious taboos.

30 October, 2020 11:04  
Blogger Mike said...

Texas did have Ann Richards as governor for a while so they can swing democratic if they want to. If anyone should push them in that direction tRUMP should.

The Lincoln Project has the philosophy the enemy of my enemy is my friend. But you have to give it to tRUMP. He's gotten republicans and democrats to work together.

30 October, 2020 12:42  
Blogger Lady M said...

"A bipartisan commission all up your ass" - ha ha. Trevors funny.

30 October, 2020 14:40  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

Mike: There have now been over nine million early votes cast in Texas, which is more than the total number of votes there in 2016. That should blow the pollsters' turnout models out of the water, one direction or the other. Let's hope.

Lady M: He's one of my favorite political commentators.

31 October, 2020 03:27  
Blogger Ranch Chimp said...

Yeah, I hear ya, haven't quite looked at it like that, only because back in the day when I was alwayz voting Republican, I never had religion on my mind for doing so ... nor did they seem as religious as they are today, even libertarians I known for years, didn't embrace all that religious crap, and they were born and raised Texans, mostly musicians or in arts of some kind.

Get this, I heard early this morning on the car radio, that Abbott/ Texas is sueing El Paso County, because they want a 2 week entire shutdown in El Paso, COVID cases been exploding there (that is WHY the lockdown is necessary), again, this is what Republicans (not Democrats) are doing in Texas ... looks like this will become a new red/ blue legal battle fixin to come here on the Ranch!


31 October, 2020 08:12  
Blogger Ami said...

Little late chiming in here.
I have been keeping an eye on the Lincoln Project ads and their Twitter feed.

I'm much more aware and involved this time around, and it's been SHIT for my mental health. I have friends and family who STILL are convinced that orange fuckwad is 'the lesser of two evils'. When confronted with all the facts, they get that stubborn face/voice and say the same. Damn. Thing.

Now with all the possible voter suppression and tossing out ballots and the stacking of the Supreme Court I'm really feeling apprehensive.

And angry as fuck.

31 October, 2020 17:15  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

Ranch: Republicans have been working so hard to help covid-19 spread, one has to wonder if they think viruses can vote. At least next year the federal government will (hopefully) be supporting the forces of sanity rather than the crazies.

Ami: The Lincoln Project has made some great ads. They're Republicans -- they know how to go for the throat.

It's OK to just shut down all interaction with assholes, and to take some time off now and then from reading about politics. I have. This stuff has been bad mentally for all of us.

31 October, 2020 17:56  
Blogger Kay said...

I love Trevor! Fingers crossed that Texas does what's good for the country and not vote for the would be dictator.

01 November, 2020 12:30  
Blogger Infidel753 said...

We'll see. I hear Texas could be called pretty early. It would be a political earthquake if it goes for Biden.

01 November, 2020 18:35  

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