Worst-case scenario

Well, they did it.  No longer can we say "the Republicans can't get anything done".  The bumbling and duplicity of the process that passed tax "reform" has been amply described on many sites, and I'm not going to rehash it.  The point is, they finally got a serious piece of legislation class warfare passed.

Why did they do it?  Why did they go all out for an unpopular bill that hands the Democrats multiple talking points to use against them next year?  For one thing, as we've all heard, some of their rich donors were threatening to cut them off if this didn't pass; for another, they may have thought it would unite their fragmented base (which is frustrated by the lack of progress on the wall, ACA repeal, etc.), even if the rest of the country doesn't like it.  It could even be merely that the ideological imperative here was much stronger than with other issues -- if there's one obsession that holds all Republicans in thrall, tax cuts for the rich is probably it.

I've also seen a more Machiavellian idea suggested:  Republicans can see the writing on the wall -- demographics, Trump's unpopularity, generic-ballot polls -- and they know they're doomed to massive losses in 2018 and 2020 no matter what they do.  So they're focused on pleasing the giant corporations and the ultra-wealthy to whom they might go for jobs as lobbyists or whatever after the voters have turfed them out, rather than pleasing their constituents.

My worst-case scenario is something a little different and more sinister -- that if they know their power will be mostly gone after a few more years, they're trying to "lock in" as much of their ideology as possible in forms that will persist even when Democrats dominate again.  Cram the courts with wingnut judges, deregulate everything, cut taxes for the wealthy, cut Medicare and Social Security.  If it leaves a huge mess in the form of recession, poverty, and an exploding national debt, why should they care?  They're not the ones who will have to clean it up.  That's their vision of America -- an obscenely wealthy kleptocracy lording it over the vast majority struggling to barely get by in a Dickensian, polluted wasteland while a Roy-Moore-ized judiciary enforces the religious taboos and racial stratification that keep their hate-crazed Deliverance-mutant base happy that they still, at least, have a few groups they can look down on.  If this is their last chance to achieve that vision, they're going to go all out.

If that's the case, then 2018 will be more dangerous than we've been expecting.  We've stopped things like ACA repeal by mass public pressure -- but if Congressional Republicans are becoming convinced they're doomed no matter what they do, and thus might as well go out in a blaze of sheer Republican-ness, then pressure based on a threat of voting against them in November may not work.

Nevertheless, that remains our best mass-action tactic.  Even Republicans are a diverse bunch and don't all think alike -- just look how factionalized they are.  Even if some or most are thinking as I described, not all are.  And not all are equally ideologically committed to each part of the agenda.  Once Jones is seated, only two defections will be needed to block legislation in the Senate.  Two should be doable, for some things.  (Collins, for one, is likely to be less loyal once it sinks in that the promises the leadership made to win her vote on tax "reform" will not be kept).

The outcome of their attack on Social Security and Medicare will tell the tale.  That will arouse more fury and opposition than anything they've tried yet.  If the resistance can stop them, we'll know that the normal rules of politics still operate and at least some Republicans are reachable by the threat of lost votes.  If not, then the worst-case scenario is in effect, and we'll have to wait for a future Democratic government to restore what the Republicans destroyed as best it can, probably constrained by economic slowdown and national decline.

And, of course, in that scenario a lot of people will lose their jobs, health insurance, or lives in the meantime.

Remember too that, as with ACA repeal, every single Democrat in Congress stood against this week's abomination.  Every single one, even those often considered "conservative".  Any Democrat is more worthy of your vote than any Republican (or any third candidate whose presence in the race helps the Republican win).

Always remember -- if we fight back, we might lose.  If we don't fight back, we will definitely lose.

[Image at top found via Hackwhackers]